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Number of items: 104.

Article

Bedford, Tim and Wilson, Kevin and Daneshkhah, Alireza (2014) Assessing parameter uncertainty on coupled models using minimum information methods. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 125 (specia). pp. 3-12. ISSN 0951-8320

Zitrou, Athena and Bedford, Tim and Walls, Lesley and Wilson, Kevin (2014) Modelling epistemic uncertainty in early life offshore wind farm performance to support risk reduction decisions. Risk Analysis. ISSN 0272-4332 (Submitted)

Zitrou, Athena and Bedford, Tim and Walls, Lesley (2014) A model for availability growth to support decisions in the presence of systemic risk for new generation offshore wind farms. Reliability Engineering and System Safety. ISSN 0951-8320 (Submitted)

Quigley, John and Wilson, Kevin and Walls, Lesley and Bedford, Tim (2013) A Bayes linear Bayes method for estimation of correlated event rates. Risk Analysis, 33 (12). 2209–2224. ISSN 0272-4332

Zitrou, Athena and Bedford, Tim and Daneshkhah, Alireza (2013) Robustness of maintenance decisions : Uncertainty modelling and value of information. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 120. pp. 60-71. ISSN 0951-8320

Wilson, Kevin and Quigley, John and Bedford, Tim and Walls, Lesley (2013) Bayes linear Bayes graphical models in the design of optimal test strategies. International Journal of Performability Engineering, 9 (6). pp. 715-728. ISSN 0973-1318

Bedford, Tim and Wilson, Kevin (2013) On the construction of minimum information bivariate copula families. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics. ISSN 0020-3157

Daneshkhah, Alireza and Bedford, Tim (2013) Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of system availability using Gaussian processes. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 112. 82–93. ISSN 0951-8320

Bedford, Tim (2013) Decision making for group risk reduction : dealing with epistemic uncertainty. Risk Analysis, 33 (10). 1884–1898. ISSN 0272-4332

Bedford, Tim and Bayley, Clare and Revie, Matthew John Thomas (2013) Screening, sensitivity, and uncertainty for the CREAM method of Human Reliability Analysis. Reliability Engineering and System Safety. ISSN 0951-8320 (In Press)

Bedford, Tim and Dewan, Isha and Meilijson, Isaac and Zitrou, Athena (2011) The signal model : a model for competing risks of opportunistic maintenance. European Journal of Operational Research, 214 (3). pp. 665-673. ISSN 0377-2217

Revie, Matthew John Thomas and Bedford, Tim and Walls, Lesley (2011) Supporting reliability decisions during defense procurement using a Bayes linear methodology. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 58 (4). pp. 662-673.

French, S. and Bedford, T. and Pollard, S. J. T. and Soane, E. (2011) Human reliability analysis : a critique and review for managers. Safety Science, 49 (6). pp. 753-763. ISSN 0925-7535

Quigley, John and Hardman, Gavin and Bedford, Tim and Walls, Lesley (2011) Merging expert and empirical data for rare event frequency estimation : pool homogenisation for empirical Bayes models. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 96 (6). pp. 687-695. ISSN 0951-8320

Revie, Matthew John Thomas and Bedford, T.J. and Walls, L.A. (2010) Evaluation of elicitation methods to quantify Bayes linear models. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability, 224 (4). pp. 322-332.

Shafti, F. and Bedford, T.J. and Deleris, L. and Hosking, J. and Serban, N. and Shen, H. and Walls, L.A. (2010) Service operation classification for risk management. IBM Journal of Research and Development, 54 (3). 7:1-7:17. ISSN 0018-8646

Zitrou, Athena and Bedford, Tim and Walls, Lesley (2010) Bayes geometric scaling model for common cause failure rates. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 95 (2). pp. 70-76. ISSN 0951-8320

Bedford, T. and Alkali, B. M. (2009) Competing risks and opportunistic informative maintenance. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability, 223 (4). pp. 363-372. ISSN 1748-006X

Wu, Shaomin and Hrudey, Steve and French, Simon and Bedford, Tim and Soane, Emma and Pollard, Simon (2009) A role for human reliability analysis (HRA) in preventing drinking water incidents and securing safe drinking water. Water Research, 43 (13). pp. 3227-3238. ISSN 0043-1354

Quigley, J.L. and Bedford, T.J. and Walls, L.A. (2009) Empirical bayes estimates of development reliability for one shot devices. Safety and Reliability : the journal of the Safety and Reliability Society, 29 (4). pp. 35-46. ISSN 0961-7353

Alkali, Babakalli M. and Bedford, Tim and Quigley, John and Gaw, Jim (2009) Failure and maintenance data extraction from power plant maintenance management databases. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 139 (5). pp. 1766-1776. ISSN 0378-3758

Wisse, B.W. and Bedford, T.J. and Quigley, J.L. (2008) Response to Tony O'Hagan's and Simon French' comments on 'expert judgement combination using moment methods'. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 93 (5). pp. 769-770. ISSN 0951-8320

Wisse, B.W. and Bedford, T.J. and Quigley, J.L. (2008) Expert judgement combination using moment methods. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 93 (5). pp. 675-686. ISSN 0951-8320

Quigley, John and Bedford, Tim and Walls, Lesley (2007) Estimating rate of occurrence of rare events with empirical Bayes : a railway application. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 92 (5). pp. 619-627. ISSN 0951-8320

Zitrou, A. and Bedford, T.J. and Walls, L.A. (2007) An influence diagram extension of the unified partial method for common cause failures. Quality Technology and Quantitative Management, 4 (1). pp. 111-128. ISSN 1684-3703

Bedford, T.J. (2006) Copulas, degenerate distributions and quantile tests. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 136. pp. 1572-1587. ISSN 0094-9655

Bedford, T.J. and Quigley, J.L. and Walls, L.A. (2006) Expert elicitation for reliable system design. Statistical Science, 21 (4). pp. 428-462. ISSN 0883-4237

Bedford, T.J. and Janssen, M. and Verstegen, C. and Willems, A. (2005) Expert quantification of uncertainties in a risk analysis for an infrastructure project. Journal of Risk Research, 8 (1). pp. 3-17. ISSN 1366-9877

Bedford, T.J. and Fragola, J.R. (2005) Identifying emerging failure phenomena in complex systems through engineering data mapping. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 90 (2-3). pp. 247-260. ISSN 0951-8320

Bedford, T.J. and Kraan, B. (2005) Probabilistic inversion of expert judgments in the quantification of model uncertainty. Management Science, 51 (6). pp. 995-1006. ISSN 0025-1909

Atherton, E. and Bedford, T.J. and French, S. (2005) Supporting ALARP decision making by cost benefit analysis and multiattribute utility theory. Journal of Risk Research, 8 (3). pp. 207-223. ISSN 1366-9877

Bedford, T.J. and Quigley, J.L. (2004) Risk reduction prioritization using decision analysis. Risk Decision and Policy, 9 (3). pp. 223-236. ISSN 1357-5309

Bedford, T.J. (2004) Assessing the impact of preventive maintenance based on censored data. Quality and Reliability Engineering International, 20 (3). pp. 247-254. ISSN 0748-8017

Bedford, T.J. and Lindqvist, B. (2004) The identifiability problem for repairable systems subject to competing risks. Advances in Applied Probability, 36 (3). pp. 774-790. ISSN 001-8678

Norstrom, J.G. and Cooke, R.M. and Bedford, T.J. (2002) Value of information based design of control software. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 77 (3). pp. 291-300. ISSN 0951-8320

Bedford, T.J. and Cooke, R. (2002) Reliability databases in perspective. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 51 (3). pp. 294-310. ISSN 0018-9529

Bedford, T.J. and Cooke, R. (2002) Vines - A new graphical model for dependent random variables. Annals of Statistics, 30 (4). pp. 1031-1068. ISSN 0090-5364

Bedford, T.J. and Bunea, C. (2002) The effect of model uncertainty on maintenance optimization. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 51 (4). pp. 486-493. ISSN 0018-9529

Bedford, T.J. and Fisher, A.C. and Urbanski, M. (2002) The scenery flow for hyperbolic Julia sets. Proceedings of the London Mathematical Society, 3 (85). pp. 467-492.

Bedford, T.J. and Cooke, R. (2001) Probability density decomposition for conditionally dependent random variables modeled by Vines. Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence, 32 (1). pp. 245-268. ISSN 1012-2443

Book

Bedford, T.J. and Quigley, J.L. and Walls, L.A. and Alkali, B. and Daneshkhah, A. and Hardman, Gavin (2008) Advances in mathematical modeling for reliability. Delft University Press, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. ISBN 9781586038656

Bedford, T.J. and Cooke, R. (2001) Probabilistic risk analysis: foundations and methods. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom. ISBN 0521773202

Book Section

Barlow, Euan and Revie, Matthew John Thomas and Bedford, Tim and Walls, Lesley (2013) Trading off asset performance and condition to model strategic maintenance decisions. In: Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis. CRC Press, Boca Raton, 723–731. ISBN 9781138001237

Zitrou, Athena and Bedford, Tim and Daneshkhah, Ali (2011) Robustness of maintenance decisions : uncertainty modelling and value of information. In: Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management. Balkema, pp. 940-948. ISBN 978-0-415-68379-1

Daneshkhah, Alireza and Bedford, Tim (2011) Multivariate elicitation : association, copulae, and graphical models. In: Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science. Wiley. ISBN 9780470400630

Daneshkhah, Alireza and Revie, Matthew John Thomas and Bedford, Tim and Walls, Lesley and Quigley, John (2011) Eliciting subjective probability distributions from groups. In: Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science. Wiley. ISBN 9780470400630

Bedford, T.J. (2009) Exploratory quantitative analysis of emergent problems with scant information. In: Making Essential Choices with Scant Information: Front-End Decision-Making in Major Projects. Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke. ISBN 9780230205864; 0230205860

Bedford, T.J. (2008) ALARP/ALARA. In: Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment. WileyBlackwell, U.K.. ISBN 978-0-470-03549-8

Bedford, T.J. and Alkali, B. and Burnham, R, (2008) Competing Risks. In: Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment. Wiley, Chichester. ISBN 9780470035498

Quigley, J.L. and Bedford, T.J. and Walls, L.A. (2008) Prior distribution elicitation. In: Encyclopaedia of Statistics in Quality and Reliability. Wiley. ISBN 9780470018613

Bedford, T.J. and Hardman, G. and Walls, L.A. and Quigley, J.L. (2008) Reliability Databases. In: Encyclopedia of Statistics in Quality and Reliability. Wiley. ISBN 9780470018613

Bedford, T.J. and Alkali, B. (2008) Modelling competing risks and opportunistic maintenance with expert judgement. In: Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Theory, Methods and Applications. Taylor and Francis, pp. 515-521. ISBN 0415485134

Hardman, G. and Bedford, T.J. and Quigley, J.L. and Walls, L.A. (2008) Modelling incident escalation in explosives storage. In: Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Theory, Methods and Applications. Taylor and Francis, pp. 987-992. ISBN 978-0-415-48513-5

Bedford, T.J. (2005) Competing risk modelling in reliability. In: Modern Statistical and Mathematical Methods in Reliability. World Scientific Books, United Kingdom. ISBN 978-981-256-356-9

Bedford, T.J. and Walls, L.A. and Zitrou, A. (2004) Developing soft factors inputs to common cause failure models. In: Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management. Springer, Germany, pp. 825-830. ISBN 978-1-85233-827-5

Bedford, T.J. and Quigley, J.L. and French, S. (2004) A comparison of data-driven and model-based approaches to quantifying railway risk. In: Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management. Springer-Verlag, London, pp. 2765-2771. ISBN 9781852338275

Norstrom, J. and Cooke, R. and Bedford, T.J. (2003) Value of information based design of control software. In: Operations Research in Space and Air. Applied Optimization, 79 . Kluwer. ISBN 978-1-4020-1218-1

Bedford, T.J. (2001) ALARP decision making. In: Decision Analysis for Reliability Assessment. Det Norske Veritas, Norway.

Bedford, T.J. (2001) The theory of decision making under uncertainty. In: Decision Analysis for Reliability Assessment. Det Norske Veritas, Norway.

Conference or Workshop Item

Zitrou, Athena and Bedford, Tim and Walls, Lesley and Wilson, Kevin and Bell, Keith (2013) Availability growth and state-of-knowledge uncertainty simulation for offshore wind farms. In: 22nd ESREL conference 2013, 2013-09-29 - 2013-10-02, Amsterdam.

Wilson, Kevin and Quigley, John and Bedford, Tim and Walls, Lesley (2013) Bayes linear graphical models in the design of optimal test strategies. In: 8th International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Reliability (MMR2013), 2013-07-01 - 2013-07-04, Stellenboch. (Unpublished)

Walls, Lesley and Zitrou, Athena and Wilson, Kevin and Bedford, Tim (2013) A model for early life availability growth of a system of systems. In: 8th International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Reliability (MMR2013), 2013-07-01 - 2013-07-04, Stellenboch.

Quigley, John and Wilson, Kevin and Bedford, Tim and Walls, Lesley (2012) Bayes linear adjustments to improve empirical bayes inference for correlated event rates. In: PSAM11 & ESREL 2012, 2012-06-25 - 2012-06-29, Helsinki.

Bedford, Tim and Wilson, Kevin and Daneshkhah, Alireza (2012) Uncertainty modelling on coupled models using minimum information methods. In: PSAM11 & ESREL 2012, 2012-06-25 - 2012-06-29, Helsinki.

Bedford, T.J. and Daneshkhah, A. (2010) Approximating multivariate distributions with vines. In: Royal Statistical Society - 2010 International Conference, 2010-09-14 - 2010-10-17.

Zitrou, Athena and Bedford, T.J. and Walls, L.A. (2010) A model for supporting decisions regarding the operation and maintenance of offshore wind turbines. In: ESREL 2010, 1900-01-01, Rhodes, Greece.

Zitrou, Athena and Bedford, T.J. (2009) A location-specific CCF model for supporting the system design process. In: 18th European Safety and Reliability Conference, 1900-01-01, Prague, Czech Republic.

Burnham, M.R. and Bedford, T.J. and Walls, L.A. (2009) The identifiability problem for generalised competing risk models with non-symmetric virtual ages. In: Mathematical Methods in Reliability, 2009-06-22 - 2009-06-27, Moscow, Russia. (Unpublished)

Bedford, Tim and Quigley, John and Revie, Matthew and Walls, Lesley (2009) Historical exploration - Learning risk lessons from the past to inform the future. In: Advances in Reliability Technology Symposium, 2009-04-21 - 2009-04-23, Loughborough, England. (Unpublished)

Hardman, G. and Bedford, T.J. and Quigley, J.L. and Walls, L.A. (2008) Modelling incident escalation in explosives storage. In: Joint ESREL (European Safety and Reliability) and SRA-Europe (Society for Risk Analysis Europe) Conference, 2008-09-22 - 2008-09-25, Valencia, Spain. (Unpublished)

Hardman, G. and Bedford, T.J. and Quigley, J.L. and Walls, L.A. (2008) Models for data combination to support safety committee decisions. In: European Safety and Reliability Conference, 2008-09-22 - 2008-09-25, Valencia, Spain.

Zitrou, A. and Bedford, T.J. and Walls, L.A. (2008) Quantitative expert judgment and model assumption violations. In: ANS International Topical Meeting PSA 2008 - Challenges to PSA during the nuclear renaissance, 2008-09-07 - 2008-09-11, Knoxville Tennessee USA.

Hardman, G. and Bedford, T.J. and Quigley, J.L. and Walls, L.A. (2008) Safety, reliability and risk analysis: theory, methods and applications. In: ESREL 2008, 2008-09-22 - 2008-09-25, Valencia, Spain. (Unpublished)

Alkali, B. and Bedford, T.J. (2008) Structuring elicitation and modelling maintenance opportunities for coal mill reliability. In: ESREL 2008, 2008-09-22 - 2008-09-25, Valencia, Spain.

Bedford, Tim and Denning, Richard and Revie, Matthew and Walls, Lesley (2008) Applying Bayes linear methods to support reliability procurement decisions. In: Annual Reliability and Maintainability symposium, 2008-01-28 - 2008-01-31, Las Vegas, USA.

Bedford, Tim and Denning, Richard and Revie, Matthew and Walls, Lesley and , IEEE (2008) Applying Bayes linear methods to support reliability procurement decisions. In: UNSPECIFIED.

Bedford, T.J. and Alkali, B. (2008) Modelling competing risks and opportunistic maintenance with expert judgement. In: ESREL Conference, 2008-09-22 - 2008-09-25, Valencia, Spain. (Unpublished)

Alkali, B. and Bedford, T.J. (2008) Structuring expert judgment elicitation for power plant reliability. In: 34th ESReDA Seminar: Supporting Technologies for Advanced Maintenance, 2008-05-13 - 2008-05-14, San Sebastian, Spain. (Unpublished)

Alkali, B. and Bedford, T.J. (2007) Competing risks for power plant equipment: a database analysis. In: 17th Advances in Risk and Reliability Symposium, 2007-04-17 - 2007-04-19, Loughborough.

Zitrou, A. and Bedford, T.J. and Walls, L.A. (2007) A Bayesian approach for structural modelling of common cause failures. In: Proceedings of the Fifth Mathemathical Methods in Reliability Conference, 2007-07-01 - 2007-07-04, Glasgow, Scotland.

Revie, Matthew and Bedford, T.J. and Walls, L.A. (2007) Eliciting covariances within a Bayes linear framework. In: Mathematical Methods in Reliability, 1900-01-01, Glasgow, UK.

Revie, Matthew John Thomas and Bedford, Tim and Walls, Lesley (2007) An introduction to Bayes linear methods. In: Mathematical Methods in Reliability, 2007-05-08 - 2007-05-10.

Bedford, T.J. and Quigley, J.L. and Walls, L.A. (2006) Fault tree inference for one-shot devices using Bayes and empirical Bayes methods. In: ESREL Conference, 2006-05-02, Warwick Business School.

Bedford, T.J. and Revie, M.J.T. and Walls, L.A. (2006) Applications of Bayes linear to reliability. In: Probabilistic Safety Assessment and management, 2006-05-14 - 2006-05-19, New Orleans.

Wisse, B.W. and Bedford, T.J. and Quigley, J.L. (2006) Performance based expert judgement weighting. In: 8th PSAM Conference, 2006-05-14 - 2006-05-19, New Orlean.

Shafti, F. and Van Der Meer, R.B. and Williams, T.M. and Bedford, T.J. (2006) Service classification research: welcome back! In: 13th International Annual Conference of the European Operations Management Association, 2006-06-18 - 2006-06-21, Glasgow.

Bedford, T.J. and Quigley, J.L. and Walls, L.A. (2005) Estimation of high-consequence low-frequency events through empirical Bayes procedures. In: ESREL Conference 2005, 2005-06-27 - 2005-06-30.

Bedford, T.J. and Revie, M.J.T. and Walls, L.A. (2005) The safety case and the lessons learned for the reliability and maintainability case. In: ESREL 2005, 2005-06-27 - 2005-06-30, Tri City (Gdynia-Sopot-Gdańsk), Poland.

Zitrou, Athena and Bedford, T.J. and Walls, L.A. (2004) Developing softer factor inputs to common cause failure models. In: International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, 2004-06-01, Berlin, Germany.

Revie, M.J.T. and Bedford, T.J. and Walls, L.A. (2004) Evaluating the R and M case - the MoD perspective. In: 27th ESREDA Seminar, 2004-11-15 - 2004-11-16, Glasgow.

Bedford, T.J. and Canepa, G. and Jenkins, I. and Lenic, J. and Morelli, G. and Preyssi, G. (2003) Draft European standard on safety risk assessment for space missions. In: ESREL 2003, 2003-06-15 - 2003-06-18, MECC, Maastricht, Netherlands. (Unpublished)

Zitrou, Athena and Bedford, T.J. (2003) Foundations of the UPM common cause failure method. In: European Safety and Reliability Conference, 2003-06-01, Maastricht, The Netherlands.

Bedford, T.J. and Zitrou, A. (2003) Foundations of the UPM common cause method. In: ESREL 2003, 2003-06-15 - 2003-06-18, MECC, Maastricht, Netherlands.

Bedford, T.J. and Madsen, H. and McDonald, G.E. and Norstrom, J. (2003) Implementation of a reliability database within a medium sized defence and aerospace. In: ESREL 2003, 2003-06-15 - 2003-06-18, MECC, Maastricht, Netherlands.

Bedford, T.J. and Cooke, R. (2001) Monte Carlo simulation of vine dependent random variables for applications in uncertainty analysis. In: ESREL 2003, 2003-06-15 - 2003-06-18, MECC, Maastricht, Netherlands.

Bedford, T.J. and Bunea, C. (2001) The robustness of maintenance optimisation to modelling assumptions. In: ESREL 2001, 2001-09-16 - 2001-09-20, Torino, Italy.

Monograph

Bedford, T.J. and Daneshkhah, A. (2010) Approximating multivariate distributions with vines. Working paper. Management Science Working Series. (In Press)

Daneshkhah, Alireza and Bedford, T.J. (2008) Emulation of Poincaré return maps with Gaussian Kriging models. Working paper. University of Strathclyde. (Unpublished)

Bedford, T.J. and Bayley, Clare (2008) Sensitivity analysis of the CREAM method for Human Reliability. Working paper. University of Strathclyde. (Unpublished)

Other

Bedford, Tim and Borodachov, S. and Geronimo, J. (2010) A topological separation condition for fractal attractors. UNSPECIFIED. (Unpublished)

Proceedings Paper

Zitrou, Athena and Bedford, Tim and Walls, Lesley and Wilson, Kevin and Bell, Keith (2014) Availability growth and state-of-knowledge uncertainty simulation for offshore wind power plants. [Proceedings Paper]

Jirsak, Cenek and Bedford, Tim and Revie, Matthew John Thomas and Walls, Lesley (2013) A condition based model using performance data for strategic asset maintenance in a water utility. [Proceedings Paper]

Zitrou, Athena and Bedford, Tim and Walls, Lesley (2012) Modelling the availability of offshore wind farm sub-assemblies. [Proceedings Paper]

Report

Bedford, Tim and Quigley, John and Revie, Matthew and Walls, Lesley (2008) Historical Exploration - Learning Lessons from the Past to Inform the Future. [Report] (Unpublished)

This list was generated on Thu Jul 24 19:44:35 2014 BST.