Robustness of maintenance decisions : Uncertainty modelling and value of information

Zitrou, Athena and Bedford, Tim and Daneshkhah, Alireza (2013) Robustness of maintenance decisions : Uncertainty modelling and value of information. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 120. pp. 60-71. ISSN 0951-8320

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Abstract

In this paper we show how sensitivity analysis for a maintenance optimisation problem can be undertaken by using the concept of expected value of perfect information (EVPI). This concept is important in a decision-theoretic context such as the maintenance problem, as it allows us to explore the effect of parameter uncertainty on the cost and the resulting recommendations. To reduce the computational effort required for the calculation of EVPIs, we have used Gaussian process (GP) emulators to approximate the cost rate model. Results from the analysis allow us to identify the most important parameters in terms of the benefit of ’learning’ by focussing on the partial expected value of perfect information for a parameter. The analysis determines the optimal solution and the expected related cost when the parameters are unknown and partially known. This type of analysis can be used to ensure that both maintenance calculations and resulting recommendations are sufficiently robust.

Creators(s): Zitrou, Athena, Bedford, Tim ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3545-2088 and Daneshkhah, Alireza;
Item type:Article
ID code:44308
Keywords:maintenance, optimisation, value of information, emulator, gaussian process, Management. Industrial Management, Applied Mathematics, Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
Subjects:Social Sciences > Industries. Land use. Labor > Management. Industrial Management
Department:Strathclyde Business School > Management Science
Depositing user: Pure Administrator
Date deposited:08 Jul 2013 09:12
Last modified:11 Dec 2020 03:28
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URI:https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/44308
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