Picture of UK Houses of Parliament

Leading national thinking on politics, government & public policy through Open Access research

Strathprints makes available scholarly Open Access content by researchers in the School of Government & Public Policy, based within the Faculty of Humanities & Social Sciences.

Research here is 1st in Scotland for research intensity and spans a wide range of domains. The Department of Politics demonstrates expertise in understanding parties, elections and public opinion, with additional emphases on political economy, institutions and international relations. This international angle is reflected in the European Policies Research Centre (EPRC) which conducts comparative research on public policy. Meanwhile, the Centre for Energy Policy provides independent expertise on energy, working across multidisciplinary groups to shape policy for a low carbon economy.

Explore the Open Access research of the School of Government & Public Policy. Or explore all of Strathclyde's Open Access research...

Eliciting subjective probability distributions from groups

Daneshkhah, Alireza and Revie, Matthew and Bedford, Tim and Walls, Lesley and Quigley, John (2011) Eliciting subjective probability distributions from groups. In: Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science. John Wiley & Sons Inc.. ISBN 9780470400630

Full text not available in this repository.Request a copy from the Strathclyde author

Abstract

Uncertainty analysis has become an increasingly important part of risk assessments and operations research models, and the role of expert judgment in providing information for decision making has become more useful. Decision makers often have access to more than one expert, and it is common to make the decisions on the basis of the expertise of several experts, which leads to the problem of how to combine or aggregate the experts' judgments. A number of approaches have been proposed as to how to elicit, and how to synthesize, the different experts' knowledge. We discuss a variety of models that lead to specific combination methods. The output of these methods is a “combined probability distribution,” which can be viewed as representing a summary of the current state of information regarding the uncertainty of interest. We also briefly review the psychology literature relating to group decision making, which, obviously, is relevant to behavioral aggregation.