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2026

Müller, Bernhard and Padberg, Inken and Lorke, Michael and Brinks, Ralph and Cripps, Sally and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. and Haake, Daniel and Ioannidis, John P. A. (2026) Uncertainty and inconsistency of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention effects with multiple competitive statistical models. Scientific Reports, 16 (1). 5767. ISSN 2045-2322

Gomes, M. Gabriela M. and Mohammed, Ibrahim and Robertson, Chris (2026) M. Gabriela M. Gomes, Ibrahim Mohammed and Chris Robertson's contribution to the Discussion of ‘Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response’ by Wood et al. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 189 (1). pp. 43-45. ISSN 0964-1998

2024

Gomes, M Gabriela M and Blagborough, Andrew M and Langwig, Kate E and Ringwald, Beate (2024) Remodelling selection to optimise disease forecasts and policies. Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical, 57 (10). 103001. ISSN 0305-4470

2023

Dula, Dingase and Morton, Ben and Chikaonda, Tarsizio and Chirwa, Anthony and Nsomba, Edna and Nkhoma, Vitumbiko and Ngoliwa, Clara and Sichone, Simon and Galafa, Bridgette and Tembo, Godwin and Chaponda, Mphatso and Toto, Neema and Kamng'ona, Raphael and Makhaza, Lumbani and Muyaya, Alfred and Thole, Faith and Kudowa, Evaristar and Howard, Ashleigh and Kenny-Nyazika, Tinashe and Ndaferankhande, John and Mkandawire, Christopher and Chiwala, Gift and Chimgoneko, Lorensio and Banda, Ndaziona and Rylance, Jamie and Ferreira, Daniela and Jambo, Kondwani and Henrion, Marc and Gordon, Stephen and Gomes, M. Gabriela M., Malawi Accelerated Research in Vaccines, Experimental and Laboratory Systems (MARVELS) consortium (2023) Effect of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on experimental carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 6B in Blantyre, Malawi : a randomised controlled trial and controlled human infection study. The Lancet Microbe, 4 (9). e683-e691. ISSN 2666-5247

2022

Montalbán, Antonio and Corder, Rodrigo M. and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. (2022) Herd immunity under individual variation and reinfection. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 85 (1). 2. ISSN 0303-6812

Gomes, M. Gabriela M. and Ferreira, Marcelo U. and Corder, Rodrigo M. and King, Jessica G. and Souto-Maior, Caetano and Penha-Gonçalves, Carlos and Gonçalves, Guilherme and Chikina, Maria and Pegden, Wesley and Aguas, Ricardo (2022) Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 540. 111063. ISSN 0022-5193

Gomes, M.G.M. (2022) Timeliness and obsolescence of herd immunity threshold estimates in the COVID-19 pandemic. Public Health, 205. e3-e4. ISSN 1476-5616

2021

Ayabina, Diepreye Victoria and Gomes, Gabriela M.M. and Nguyen, Nhung Viet and Vo, Luan and Shreshta, Suvesh and Thapa, Anil and Codlin, Andrew James and Mishra, Gokul and Caws, Maxine (2021) The impact of active case finding on transmission dynamics of tuberculosis : A modelling study. PLOS One, 16 (11 Nov). e0257242. ISSN 1932-6203

2020

Souto-Maior, Caetano and King, Jessica G. and Sartori, Larissa M. and Maciel-de-Freitas, Rafael and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. (2020) Reply to: “Enhancement of Aedes aegypti susceptibility to dengue by Wolbachia is not supported”. Nature Communications, 11. 6113. ISSN 2041-1723

Gomes, M. Gabriela M. (2020) A Brief Appraisal of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Portugal:[Discussion on the paper by Nunes, Caetano, Antunes and Dias]. REVSTAT - Statistical Journal, 18 (4). pp. 575-576. ISSN 1645-6726

Soares, P. and Duarte, R. and Gomes, M. G.M. and Rocha, C. and Lopes, J. S. (2020) Insights into tuberculosis : a survival analysis of time to recurrence in Portugal, between 2002 and 2009. Pulmonology, 26 (5). pp. 318-320. ISSN 2531-0437

Colombo, Marco and Mellor, Joseph and Colhoun, Helen M. and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. and McKeigue, Paul M. (2020) Trajectory of COVID-19 epidemic in Europe. Other. medRxiv, Cold Spring Harbour.

Corder, Rodrigo M. and Ferreira, Marcelo U. and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. (2020) Modelling the epidemiology of residual Plasmodium vivax malaria in a heterogeneous host population : a case study in the Amazon Basin. PLoS Computational Biology, 16 (3). e1007377. ISSN 1553-7358

2019

Gomes, M. Gabriela M. and King, Jessica G. and Nunes, Ana and Colegrave, Nick and Hoffmann, Ary A. (2019) The effects of individual nonheritable variation on fitness estimation and coexistence. Ecology and Evolution, 9 (16). pp. 8995-9004. ISSN 2045-7758

Trauer, James M. and Dodd, Peter J. and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. and Gomez, Gabriela B. and Houben, Rein M. G. J. and McBryde, Emma S. and Melsew, Yayehirad A. and Menzies, Nicolas A. and Arinaminpathy, Nimalan and Shrestha, Sourya and Dowdy, David W. (2019) The importance of heterogeneity to the epidemiology of tuberculosis. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 69 (1). pp. 159-166. ISSN 1058-4838

Gomes, M. Gabriela M. and Oliveira, Juliane F. and Bertolde, Adelmo and Ayabina, Diepreye and Nguyen, Tuan Anh and Maciel, Ethel L. and Duarte, Raquel and Nguyen, Binh Hoa and Shete, Priya B. and Lienhardt, Christian (2019) Introducing risk inequality metrics in tuberculosis policy development. Nature Communications, 10. 2480. ISSN 2041-1723

Langwig, Kate E. and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. and Clark, Mercedes D. and Kwitny, Molly and Yamada, Steffany and Wargo, Andrew R. and Lipsitch, Marc (2019) Limited available evidence supports theoretical predictions of reduced vaccine efficacy at higher exposure dose. Scientific Reports, 9. 3203. ISSN 2045-2322

Reis-Santos, Barbara and Shete, Priya and Bertolde, Adelmo and Sales, Carolina M. and Sanchez, Mauro N. and Arakaki-Sanchez, Denise and Andrade, Kleydson B. and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. and Boccia, Delia and Lienhardt, Christian and Maciel, Ethel L. (2019) Tuberculosis in Brazil and cash transfer programs : a longitudinal database study of the effect of cash transfer on cure rates. PLoS ONE, 14 (2). e0212617. ISSN 1932-6203

2018

Aguas, Ricardo and Maude, Richard J. and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. and White, Lisa J. and White, Nicholas J. and Dondorp, Arjen M. (2018) Infectivity of chronic malaria infections and its consequences for control and elimination. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 67 (2). pp. 295-302. ISSN 1058-4838

King, Jessica G. and Souto-Maior, Caetano and Sartori, Larissa M. and Maciel-De-Freitas, Rafael and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. (2018) Variation in Wolbachia effects on Aedes mosquitoes as a determinant of invasiveness and vectorial capacity. Nature Communications, 9 (1). 1483. ISSN 2041-1723

Souto-Maior, Caetano and Sylvestre, Gabriel and Braga Stehling Dias, Fernando and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. and Maciel-de-Freitas, Rafael (2018) Model-based inference from multiple dose, time course data reveals Wolbachia effects on infection profiles of type 1 dengue virus in Aedes aegypti. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 12 (3). e0006339. ISSN 1935-2727

2017

Franco, Ana O. and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. (2017) Desafios e oportunidades na saúde digital. Cadernos De Saúde Pública, 33 (11). e00090417. ISSN 0102-311X

Langwig, Kate E. and Wargo, Andrew R. and Jones, Darbi R. and Viss, Jessie R. and Rutan, Barbara J. and Egan, Nicholas A. and Sá-Guimarães, Pedro and Kim, Min Sun and Kurath, Gael and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. and Lipsitch, Marc (2017) Vaccine effects on heterogeneity in susceptibility and implications for population health management. mBio, 8. e00796-17. ISSN 2161-2129

Duarte, Tonya Azevedo and Nery, Joilda Silva and Boechat, Neio and Pereira, Susan Martins and Simonsen, Vera and Oliveira, Martha and Gomes, Maria Gabriela Miranda and Penha-Gonçalves, Carlos and Barreto, Mauricio Lima and Barbosa, Theolis (2017) A systematic review of East African-Indian family of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Brazil. Brazilian Journal of Infectious Diseases, 21 (3). pp. 317-324. ISSN 1678-4391

Pescarini, Julia Moreira and Rodrigues, Laura Cunha and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. and Waldman, Eliseu Alves (2017) Migration to middle-income countries and tuberculosis-global policies for global economies. Globalization and Health, 13 (1). 15. ISSN 1744-8603

2016

Gomes, M. Gabriela M. and Gordon, Stephen B. and Lalloo, David G. (2016) Clinical trials : the mathematics of falling vaccine efficacy with rising disease incidence. Vaccine, 34 (27). pp. 3007-3009. ISSN 1873-2518

Margheri, Alessandro and Rebelo, Carlota and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. (2016) Heterogeneity in disease risk induces falling vaccine protection with rising disease incidence. Dynamical Systems, 32 (1). pp. 148-163. ISSN 1468-9375

Gomes, M. Gabriela M. and Barreto, Maurício L. and Glaziou, Philippe and Medley, Graham F. and Rodrigues, Laura C. and Wallinga, Jacco and Squire, S. Bertel (2016) End TB strategy : the need to reduce risk inequalities. BMC Infectious Diseases, 16 (1). pp. 1-4. 132. ISSN 1471-2334

Gjini, Erida and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. (2016) Expanding vaccine efficacy estimation with dynamic models fitted to cross-sectional prevalence data post-licensure. Epidemics, 14. pp. 71-82. ISSN 1755-4365

2015

van Noort, Sander P. and Codeço, Cláudia T. and Koppeschaar, Carl E. and van Ranst, Marc and Paolotti, Daniela and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. (2015) Ten-year performance of Influenzanet : ILI time series, risks, vaccine effects, and care-seeking behaviour. Epidemics, 13. pp. 28-36. ISSN 1755-4365

2014

Pessoa, Delphine and Souto-Maior, Caetano and Gjini, Erida and Lopes, Joao S. and Ceña, Bruno and Codeço, Cláudia T. and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. (2014) Unveiling time in dose-response models to infer host susceptibility to pathogens. PLoS Computational Biology, 10 (8). pp. 1-9. e1003773. ISSN 1553-7358

Franco, Ana O. and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. and Rowland, Mark and Coleman, Paul G. and Davies, Clive R. (2014) Controlling malaria using livestock-based interventions : a one health approach. PLoS ONE, 9 (7). pp. 1-17. e101699. ISSN 1932-6203

Lopes, Joao Sollari and Rodrigues, Paula and Pinho, Suani T.R. and Andrade, Roberto F.S. and Duarte, Raquel and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. (2014) Interpreting measures of tuberculosis transmission : a case study on the Portuguese population. BMC Infectious Diseases, 14 (1). pp. 1-9. 340. ISSN 1471-2334

Gomes, M. Gabriela M. and Lipsitch, Marc and Wargo, Andrew R. and Kurath, Gael and Rebelo, Carlota and Medley, Graham F. and Coutinho, Antonio (2014) A missing dimension in measures of vaccination impacts. PLOS Pathogens, 10 (3). pp. 1-3. e1003849. ISSN 1553-7366

Bandeiras, Cátia and Trovoada, Maria Jesus and Gonçalves, Lígia A. and Marinho, Cláudio R.F. and Turner, Louise and Hviid, Lars and Penha-Gonçalves, Carlos and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. (2014) Modeling malaria infection and immunity against variant surface antigens in Príncipe Island, West Africa. PLoS ONE, 9 (2). pp. 1-10. e88110. ISSN 1932-6203

2013

Soares, Patrícia and Alves, Renato J. and Abecasis, Ana B. and Penha-Gonçalves, Carlos and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. and Pereira-Leal, José B. (2013) inTB : a data integration platform for molecular and clinical epidemiological analysis of tuberculosis. BMC Bioinformatics, 14. 264. ISSN 1471-2105

Pessoa, Delphine and Hoti, Fabian and Syrjänen, Ritva and Sá-Leão, Raquel and Kaijalainen, Tarja and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. and Auranen, Kari (2013) Comparative analysis of Streptococcus pneumoniae transmission in Portuguese and Finnish day-care centres. BMC Infectious Diseases, 13 (1). 180. ISSN 1471-2334

2012

Gomes, M. Gabriela M., WHO-VMI Dengue Vaccine Modeling Group (2012) Assessing the potential of a candidate dengue vaccine with mathematical modeling. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 6 (3). e1450. ISSN 1935-2727

2011

Águas, Ricardo and Ferreira, Marcelo U. and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. (2011) Modeling the effects of relapse in the transmission dynamics of malaria parasites. Journal of Parasitology Research, 2012. 921715. ISSN 2090-0023

Coelho, Flávio Codeço and Codeço, Cláudia Torres and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. (2011) A Bayesian framework for parameter estimation in dynamical models. PLoS ONE, 6 (5). e19616. ISSN 1932-6203

2010

van Noort, Sander P. and Nunes, Marta C. and Weedall, Gareth D. and Hviid, Lars and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. (2010) Immune selection and within-host competition can structure the repertoire of variant surface antigens in Plasmodium falciparum - a mathematical model. PLoS ONE, 5 (3). e9778. ISSN 1932-6203

2009

Águas, Ricardo and Lourenço, José M.L. and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. and White, Lisa J. (2009) The impact of IPTi and IPTc interventions on malaria clinical burden - In Silico perspectives. PLoS ONE, 4 (8). e6627. ISSN 1932-6203

Gordo, Isabel and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. and Reis, Daniel G. and Campos, Paulo R.A. (2009) Genetic diversity in the SIR model of pathogen evolution. PLoS ONE, 4 (3). e4876. ISSN 1932-6203

2008

Águas, Ricardo and White, Lisa J. and Snow, Robert W. and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. (2008) Prospects for malaria eradication in sub-Saharan Africa. PLoS ONE, 3 (3). e1767. ISSN 1932-6203

2007

White, L. J. and Mandl, J. N. and Gomes, M. G.M. and Bodley-Tickell, A. T. and Cane, P. A. and Perez-Brena, P. and Aguilar, J. C. and Siqueira, M. M. and Portes, S. A. and Straliotto, S. M. and Waris, M. and Nokes, D. J. and Medley, G. F. (2007) Understanding the transmission dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus using multiple time series and nested models. Mathematical Biosciences, 209 (1). pp. 222-239. ISSN 0025-5564