Modeling malaria infection and immunity against variant surface antigens in Príncipe Island, West Africa

Bandeiras, Cátia and Trovoada, Maria Jesus and Gonçalves, Lígia A. and Marinho, Cláudio R.F. and Turner, Louise and Hviid, Lars and Penha-Gonçalves, Carlos and Gomes, M. Gabriela M. (2014) Modeling malaria infection and immunity against variant surface antigens in Príncipe Island, West Africa. PLoS ONE, 9 (2). pp. 1-10. e88110. ISSN 1932-6203 (https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088110)

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Abstract

After remarkable success of vector control campaigns worldwide, concerns about loss of immunity against Plasmodium falciparum due to lack of exposure to the parasite are relevant since an increase of severe cases in less immune individuals is expected. We present a mathematical model to investigate the impact of reducing exposure to the parasite on the immune repertoire against P. falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1 (PfEMP1) variants. The model was parameterized with data from Príncipe Island, West Africa, and applied to simulate two alternative transmission scenarios: one where control measures are continued to eventually drive the system to elimination; and another where the effort is interrupted after 6 years of its initiation and the system returns to the initial transmission potential. Population dynamics of parasite prevalence predict that in a few years infection levels return to the pre-control values, while the re-acquisition of the immune repertoire against PfEMP1 is slower, creating a window for increased severity. The model illustrates the consequences of loss of immune repertoire against PfEMP1 in a given setting and can be applied to other regions where similar data may be available.

  • Item type:Article
    ID code:72563
    Dates:
    Date
    Event
    10 February 2014
    Published
    7 January 2014
    Accepted
    Notes:Bandeiras C, Trovoada MJ, Gonçalves LA, Marinho CRF, Turner L, Hviid L, et al. (2014) Modeling Malaria Infection and Immunity against Variant Surface Antigens in Príncipe Island, West Africa. PLoS ONE 9(2): e88110. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088110
    Subjects:Medicine
    Department:Faculty of Science > Mathematics and Statistics
    Depositing user: Pure Administrator
    Date deposited:04 Jun 2020 09:44
    Last modified:09 Apr 2024 01:30
    Related URLs:
    URI:https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/72563
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