Clinical trials : the mathematics of falling vaccine efficacy with rising disease incidence

Gomes, M. Gabriela M. and Gordon, Stephen B. and Lalloo, David G. (2016) Clinical trials : the mathematics of falling vaccine efficacy with rising disease incidence. Vaccine, 34 (27). pp. 3007-3009. ISSN 1873-2518 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2016.04.065)

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Abstract

Reports of unexplained discrepancies in the efficacy of vaccines, as estimated from randomised controlled trials in different parts of the world, are commonplace in the literature [1], [2], [3], [4]. Moreover, there is a consistent trend for lower vaccine efficacy when measured in settings where the disease of interest has a higher incidence, leading to questions about the appropriateness of pooled estimates. Here, we examine the mathematical basis for such trends and propose a measure of efficacy that is valid across settings. The approach relies on fitting mechanistic models, which specify pathogen exposures and host responses, to global vaccine trial data stratified by local disease incidence. Such models enable the estimation of vaccine protection per exposure to the pathogen. A strategy to estimate per-exposure vaccine efficacy will enable more accurate estimates of vaccine efficacy across a range of disease incidence [5].

  • Item type:Article
    ID code:73230
    Dates:
    Date
    Event
    8 June 2016
    Published
    10 May 2016
    Published Online
    20 April 2016
    Accepted
    Keywords:efficacy of vaccines, randomised controlled trials, vaccine protection per exposure, Mathematics, Molecular Medicine, Immunology and Microbiology(all), veterinary(all), Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Infectious Diseases
    Subjects:Science > Mathematics
    Department:Faculty of Science > Mathematics and Statistics
    Depositing user: Pure Administrator
    Date deposited:15 Jul 2020 14:43
    Last modified:28 Nov 2022 02:56
    Related URLs:
    URI:https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/73230
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