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2024

Evans, Daniel and Horigan, Verity and Taylor, Rachel A. and Kelly, Louise (2024) A qualitative risk assessment of imports of animal feed as a potential pathway for Aujeszky's disease virus incursion. Microbial Risk Analysis, 27-28. 100314. ISSN 2352-3522

Patel, Virag and Taylor, Rachel A. and McCarthy, Catherine M. and Moir, Ruth and Kelly, Louise A. and Snary, Emma L. (2024) Estimating a region's SARS-CoV-2 prevalence by accounting for under-reporting of cases. PLOS One. ISSN 1932-6203 (In Press)

2023

Horigan, Verity and Simons, Robin and Kavanagh, Kim and Kelly, Louise (2023) A review of qualitative risk assessment in animal health : suggestions for best practice. Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 10. 1102131. ISSN 2297-1769

2021

Taylor, Rachel A and Podgórski, Tomasz and Simons, Robin R. L. and Ip, Sophie and Gale, Paul and Kelly, Louise A. and Snary, Emma L. (2021) Predicting spread and effective control measures for African swine fever - should we blame the boars? Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 68. pp. 397-416. ISSN 1865-1674

Stewart, Ryan and Reilly, John J and Hughes, Adrienne and Kelly, Louise A and Conway, David I and Young, David and Sherriff, Andrea (2021) Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in underweight and obesity in 5-year-old children, 2011–2018 : a population-based, repeated cross-sectional study. BMJ Open, 11 (3). e042023. ISSN 2044-6055

2020

Horigan, Verity and Gale, Paul and Adkin, Amie and Konold, Timm and Cassar, Claire and Spiropoulos, John and Kelly, Louise (2020) Assessing the aggregated probability of entry of a novel prion disease agent into the United Kingdom. Microbial Risk Analysis, 16. 100134. ISSN 2352-3522

Foddai, Alessandro and Kelly, Louise and McGiven, John and Grace, Katherine and Evans, Sarah (2020) Quantitative assessment of the probability of introducing bovine brucellosis into English cattle herds by imported live cattle. Microbial Risk Analysis, 16. 100130. ISSN 2352-3522

Gale, P. and Sechi, S. and Horigan, V. and Taylor, R. and Brown, I. and Kelly, L. (2020) Risk assessment for recrudescence of avian influenza in caged layer houses following depopulation : the effect of cleansing, disinfection and dismantling of equipment. Animal, 14 (7). pp. 1536-1545. ISSN 1751-7311

Taylor, Rachel A. and Condoleo, Roberto and Simons, Robin R. L. and Gale, Paul and Kelly, Louise A. and Snary, Emma L. (2020) The risk of infection by African swine fever virus in European swine through boar movement and legal trade of pigs and pig meat. Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 6. 486. ISSN 2297-1769

2019

Horigan, V. and Gale, P. and Adkin, A. and Brown, I. and Clark, J. and Kelly, L. (2019) A qualitative risk assessment of cleansing and disinfection requirements after an avian influenza outbreak in commercial poultry. British Poultry Science, 60 (6). pp. 691-699. ISSN 0007-1668

Taylor, Rachel A. and Berriman, Alexander DC and Gale, Paul and Kelly, Louise A. and Snary, Emma L. (2019) A generic framework for spatial quantitative risk assessments of infectious diseases : lumpy skin disease case study. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 66 (1). pp. 131-143. ISSN 1865-1674

2018

Adkin, Amie and Horigan, Verity and Rajanayagam, Brenda and Arnold, Mark and Konold, Timm and Spiropoulos, John and Kelly, Louise (2018) Estimating the impact on food and edible materials of changing scrapie control measures : the scrapie control model. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 158. pp. 51-64. ISSN 0167-5877

Horigan, V. and Beard, P.M. and Roberts, H. and Adkin, A. and Gale, P. and Batten, C.A. and Kelly, L. (2018) Assessing the probability of introduction and transmission of lumpy skin disease virus within the United Kingdom. Microbial Risk Analysis, 9. pp. 1-10. ISSN 2352-3522

Kelly, L. and Kosmider, R. and Gale, P. and Snary, E. L. (2018) Qualitative import risk assessment : a proposed method for estimating the aggregated probability of entry of infection. Microbial Risk Analysis, 9. pp. 33-37. ISSN 2352-3522

Berriman, A.D.C. and Fooks, A.R. and Kelly, L.A. and Snary, E.L. (2018) Assessing the risk of rabies re-introduction into the United Kingdom from Eastern European countries. Microbial Risk Analysis, 8. pp. 50-52. ISSN 2352-3522

2017

Love, J. W. and Kelly, L. A. and Lester, H. E. and Nanjiani, I. and Taylor, M. A. and Robertson, C. (2017) Investigating anthelmintic efficacy against gastrointestinal nematodes in cattle by considering appropriate probability distributions for faecal egg count data. International Journal for Parasitology: Drugs and Drug Resistance, 7 (1). pp. 71-82.

2016

Hill, Andrew A. and Simmons, Robin R. L. and Kelly, Louise and Snary, Emma L. (2016) A farm transmission model for Salmonella in pigs, applicable to EU members states. Risk Analysis, 36 (3). pp. 461-481. ISSN 1539-6924

Simmons, R. R. L. and Hill, A. A. and Swart, A. and Kelly, L. and Snary, E. L. (2016) A transport and lairage model for Salmonella transmission between pigs, applicable to EU member states. Risk Analysis, 36 (3). pp. 482-497. ISSN 1539-6924

Gale, P. and Kelly, L. and Snary, E.L. (2016) Qualitative assessment of the entry of capripoxviruses into Great Britain from the European Union through importation of ruminant hides, skins and wool. Microbial Risk Analysis, 1. pp. 13-18.

Hill, Andrew A. and Simons, Robin L. and Swart, Arno N. and Kelly, Louise and Hald, Tine and Snary, Emma L. (2016) Assessing the effectiveness of on-farm and abattoir interventions in reducing pig-meat borne Salmonellosis within EU member states. Risk Analysis, 36 (3). pp. 545-560. ISSN 1539-6924

2015

Adkin, A. and Brouwer, A. and Downs, S. H. and Kelly, L. (2015) Assessing the impact of a cattle risk-based trading scheme on the movement of bovine tuberculosis infected animals in England and Wales. Preventive Veterinary Medicine. ISSN 0167-5877

Hill, A. A. and Dewé, T. and Kosmider, R. and Von Dobschuetz, S. and Munoz, O. and Hanna, A. and Fusaro, A. and De Nardi, M. and Howard, W. and Stevens, K. and Kelly, L. and Havelaar, A. and Stärk, K. (2015) Modelling the species jump : towards assessing the risk of human infection from novel avian influenzas. Royal Society Open Science, 2 (9). 150173.

Gale, P. and Kelly, L. and Mearns, R. and Duggan, J. and Snary, E.L. (2015) Q fever through consumption of unpasteurised milk and milk products – a risk profile and exposure assessment. Journal of Applied Microbiology, 118 (5). pp. 1083-1095. ISSN 1364-5072

Gale, P. and Kelly, Louise and Snary, E.L. (2015) Pathways for entry of livestock arboviruses into Great Britain : assessing the strength of evidence. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 62 (2). pp. 115-228. ISSN 1865-1674

Simmons, Robin and Kelly, Louise and Snary, Emma and Brunton, Lucy and Horigan, Verity and Jones, Jeff (2015) A quantitative risk assessment for the selection of extended spectrum beta lactamase resistance in UK calves by feeding waste milk containing antibiotic residues. In: International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, 2015-11-01 - 2015-11-03. (Unpublished)

2014

Gale, P. and Hill, A. and Kelly, L. and Bassett, J. and McClure, P. and Le Mark, Y. and Soumpasis, I. (2014) Applications of omics approaches to the development of microbiological risk assessment using RNA virus dose–response models as a case study. Journal of Applied Microbiology, 117 (6). pp. 1537-1548. ISSN 1364-5072

Horigan, V. and Davies, R. H. and Kelly, Louise and Mead, G. C. and Irvine, R.M. and Simons, R. R. L. (2014) A qualitative risk assessment of the microbiological risks to consumers from the production and consumption of uneviscerated and eviscerated small game birds in the UK. Food Control, 45. pp. 127-137.

Gale, P. and Goddard, A. and Breed, A.C. and Irvine, R.M. and Kelly, L. and Snary, E.L. (2014) Entry of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus into Europe through migratory wild birds : a qualitative release assessment at the species level. Journal of Applied Microbiology, 116 (6). pp. 1405-1417. ISSN 1364-5072

2013

Adkin, A. and Donaldson, Neil and Kelly, Louise (2013) A quantitative assessment of the amount of prion diverted to category 1 materials and wastewater during processing. Risk Analysis, 33 (7). pp. 1197-1211. ISSN 1539-6924

Adkin, A. and Donaldson, Neil and Kelly, Louise (2013) A quantitative assessment of the prion risk associated with wastewater from carcase-handling facilities. Risk Analysis, 33 (7). pp. 1212-1227. ISSN 1539-6924

2012

Ortiz-Pelaez, A. and Kelly, Louise Anne and Adkin, A. (2012) The risk of introducing scrapie from restocking goats in Great Britain. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 107 (3-4). pp. 222-230. ISSN 0167-5877

Goddard, Ashley David and Donaldson, N.M. and Horton, D.L. and Kosmider, Rowena Dawn and Kelly, Louise Anne and Sayers, A.R. and Breed, A.C. and Freuling, C.M. and Muller, T. and Shaw, S.E. and Hallgren, G. and Fooks, A.R. and Snary, E.L. (2012) A quantitative release assessment for the noncommercial movement of companion animals : risk of rabies reintroduction to the United Kingdom. Risk Analysis, 32 (10). pp. 1769-1783. ISSN 1539-6924

Gale, P. and Stephenson, B. and Brouwer, A. and Martinez, M. and de la Torre, A. and Bosch, J. and Foley-Fisher, M. and Bonilauri, P. and Lindstrom, A. and Ulrich, R.G. and de Vos, C.J. and Scremin, M. and Liu, Z. and Kelly, Louise Anne and Munoz, M.J. (2012) Impact of climate change on risk of incursion of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in livestock in Europe through migratory birds. Journal of Applied Microbiology, 112 (2). pp. 246-257. ISSN 1364-5072

Kelly, Louise Anne and Brouwer, A. and Wilson, A. and Gale, P. and Snary, E. and Ross, David and de Vos, D.J. (2012) Epidemic threats to the European Union: expert views on six virus groups. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases.

2011

Kosmider, Rowena Dawn and Kelly, Louise Anne and Simons, R.L. and Brouwer, A and David, G. (2011) Detecting new and emerging diseases on livestock farms using an early detection system. Epidemiology and Infection, 139 (10). pp. 1476-1485.

Heller, J. and Innocent, G.T. and Denwood, M and Reid, Stuart and Kelly, L. and Mellor, D.J. (2011) Assessing the probability of acquisition of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in a dog using a nested stochastic simulation model and logistic regression sensitivity analysis. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 99 (2-4). pp. 211-224. ISSN 0167-5877

2010

Gale, P. and Brouwer, A. and Ramnial, V. and Kelly, L. and Kosmider, R. and Fooks, A.R. and Snary, E.L., EPIZONE (Funder) (2010) Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion. Infection and Epidemiology, 138 (2). pp. 214-225. ISSN 0950-2688

Heller, J. and Kelly, L. and Reid, S.W.J. and Mellor, D.J. (2010) Qualitative risk assessment of the acquisiton of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in pet dogs. Risk Analysis, 30 (3). pp. 458-472. ISSN 1539-6924

2009

Kelly, Louise and Murchie, Laura and Xia, Bin and Whyte, Paul and Madden, Robert H., Safefood (Funder) (2009) Probabilistic model for contamination of egg dishes with Salmonella spp. made from shell eggs produced on the island of Ireland. International Journal of Food Microbiology, 135 (3). pp. 187-192. ISSN 0168-1605

Heller, J. and Innocent, G.T. and Kelly, Louise Anne and Reid, Stuart and Mellor, D.J.; Newton, J.R. and Pfeiffer, D.U., eds. (2009) Quantitative risk assessment for the acquisition of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in dogs. In: Proceedings of the Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine Meeting 1st-3rd April 2009. Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, GBR, pp. 23-34. ISBN 978-0-948073-89-2

2008

Murchie, Laura and Xia, Bin and Madden, Robert H. and Whyte, Paul and Kelly, Louise, Safefood (Funder) (2008) Qualitative exposure assessment for Salmonella spp. in shell eggs produced on the island of Ireland. International Journal of Food Microbiology, 125 (3). pp. 308-319. ISSN 0168-1605

Kavanagh, Kimberley and Kelly, Louise Anne and Snary, Emma and Gettinby, George; (2008) Assessing the probability of detecting antimicrobial resistant Salmonella in livestock using mathematical models. In: Young Statisticians’ Meeting. Office for National Statistics, GBR. (Unpublished)

Kavanagh, Kimberley and Kelly, Louise Anne and Snary, E.L. and Gettinby, George; Peeler, E.J. and Alban, L. and Russell, A., eds. (2008) Detection of antimicrobial resistant Salmonella in livestock: a chance event? In: Proceedings of the 2008 Annual Conference of the Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine (SVEPM). Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, GBR, pp. 87-97. ISBN 9780948073847

2007

Murchie, L. and Whyte, P. and Xia, B. and Kelly, Louise Anne and Madden, R.H. (2007) Prevalence of Salmonella in grade A whole shell eggs in the island of Ireland. Journal of Food Protection, 70 (5). pp. 1238-40. ISSN 0362-028X

2006

Kosmider, R and Kelly, L and Evans, S and Gettinby, G (2006) A statistical system for detecting Salmonella outbreaks in British livestock. Infection and Epidemiology, 134 (5). pp. 952-960. ISSN 0950-2688

Kosmider, Rowena Dawn and Kelly, Louise Anne and Laurenson, K. and Coleman, P. and Fooks, A.R. and Woolhouse, M. and Wooldridge, M. (2006) Risk assessments to inform policy decisions regarding importation of pets from North America. Veterinary Record, 158 (20). pp. 694-5. ISSN 0042-4900

2005

Revie, C.W. and Robbins, C. and Gettinby, G. and Kelly, L. and Treasurer, J.W. (2005) A mathematical model of the growth of sea lice, Lepeophtheirus salmonis, populations on farmed Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., in Scotland and its use in the assessment of treatment strategies. Journal of Fish Diseases, 28 (10). pp. 603-13. ISSN 0140-7775

Coburn, H.L. and Snary, E.L. and Kelly, Louise Anne and Wooldridge, M.. (2005) Qualitative risk assessment of the hazards and risks from wild game. Veterinary Record, 157 (11). pp. 321-322. ISSN 0042-4900

Wood, J.L.N. and Kelly, Louise Anne and Cardwell, J.M. and Park, A.W. (2005) Quantitative assessment of the risks of reducing the routine swabbing requirements for the detection of Taylorella equigenitalis. Veterinary Record, 157 (2). pp. 41-46. ISSN 0042-4900

Revie, C.W. and Gettinby, G. and McKenzie, E. and Kelly, L. and Wallace, C. and Treasurer, J.W. (2005) Evidence of inter-species interaction between sea lice in Scottish salmon farms? In: European Conference of the Society of Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, 2005-03-30 - 2005-04-01.

Kelly, Louise Anne; Mead, G.C., ed. (2005) Microbiological risk assessment in poultry production and processing. In: Food Safety control in the poultry industry. Woodhead Publishing in Food Science and Technology, pp. 255-272. ISBN 9781855739543

Jones, Rowena D. and Kelly, L.A. and Fooks, A.R. and Wooldridge, M. (2005) Quantitative risk assessment of rabies entering Great Britain from North America via cats and dogs. Risk Analysis, 25 (3). pp. 533-542. ISSN 1539-6924

2004

Snary, E.L. and Kelly, L.A. and Davison, H. and Teale, C.J. and Wooldridge, M. (2004) Antimicrobial resistance: a microbial risk assessment perspective. Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy, 53 (6). pp. 906-917. ISSN 0305-7453

Jones, R.D. and Kelly, Louise Anne and England, T. and MacMillan, A. and Wooldridge, M.. (2004) A quantitative risk assessment for the importation of brucellosis-infected breeding cattle into Great Britain from selected European countries. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 63 (1-2). pp. 51-61. ISSN 0167-5877

England, T. and Kelly, Louise Anne and Jones, R.D. and MacMillan, A. and Wooldridge, M.. (2004) A simulation model of brucellosis spread in British cattle under several testing regimes. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 63 (1-2). pp. 63-73. ISSN 0167-5877

Kelly, L.A. and Smith, D.L. and Snary, E.L. and Johnson, J.A. and Harris, A.D. and Wooldridge, M. and Morris, J.G. (2004) Animal growth promoters: to ban or not to ban? A risk assessment approach. International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents, 24 (3). pp. 205-212. ISSN 0924-8579

Jones, R.D. and Kelly, Louise Anne and French, N. and England, T. and Livesey, C. and Wooldridge, M.. (2004) Quantitative estimates of the risk of new outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease as a result of burning pyres. Veterinary Record, 154 (6). pp. 161-165. ISSN 0042-4900

2003

Kelly, Louise Anne and Taylor, M.A. and Wooldridge, M.. (2003) Estimating the predicted environmental concentration of the residues of veterinary medicines: should uncertainty and variability be ignored? Risk Analysis, 23 (3). pp. 489-496. ISSN 1539-6924

Snary, E.L. and Kelly, Louise Anne and Clifton-Hadley, F. and Liebana, E. and Wooldridge, M.. and Reid, S. and Threlfall, J. and Lindsay, E. and Hutchison, M. and Davies, R. (2003) Assessing the risk of the transfer of antimicrobial resistance genes between bacteria in stored and spread farm wastes. Research in Veterinary Science, 74 (Supple). p. 5.

Kelly, Louise Anne and Hartnett, E. and Gettinby, George and Fazil, A. and Snary, E.L. and Wooldridge, M.. (2003) Microbiological safety of poultry meat: Risk assessment as a way forward. World's Poultry Science Journal, 59 (4). pp. 495-508.

2002

Gallagher, E. and Kelly, Louise Anne and Wooldridge, M.. and Ryan, J. and Leforban, Y. (2002) Estimating the risk of importation of foot-and-mouth disease into Europe. Veterinary Record, 150 (25). pp. 769-772. ISSN 0042-4900

French, N.P. and Kelly, L.A. and Kosmider, R.D. and Clancy, D. (2002) Dose-response relationships for Foot and Mouth disease in cattle and sheep. Infection and Epidemiology, 128. pp. 325-332. ISSN 0950-2688

Hartnett, E. and Kelly, L.A. and Gettinby, G. and Wooldridge, M. (2002) A quantitative risk assessment for campylobacters in broilers: work in progress. International Biodeterioration and Biodegradation, 50 (3-4). pp. 161-165. ISSN 0964-8305

2001

Hartnett, E. and Kelly, L.A. and Newell, D. and Wooldridge, M. and Gettinby, G. (2001) A quantitative risk assessment for the occurrence of campylobacter in chickens at the point of slaughter. Infection and Epidemiology, 127 (2). pp. 195-206. ISSN 0950-2688

2000

Kelly, Louise Anne and Gibson, Gavin and Gettinby, George and Donachie, W. and Low, J.C. (2000) A predictive model of the extent of listerial contamination within damaged silage bales. Quantitative Microbiology, 2 (3). pp. 171-188. ISSN 1388-3593

1999

Kelly, Louise Anne and Wooldridge, M.. (1999) Risk analysis and risk assessment in pig production. Pig Journal, 44. pp. 18-26.

Kelly, L.A. and Gibson, G. and Gettinby, G. and Donachie, W. and Low, J.C. (1999) The use of dummy data points when fitting bacterial growth curves. IMA Journal of Mathematics Applied in Medicine and Biology, 16 (2). pp. 155-170. ISSN 0265-0746

1995

Kelly, L.A. and Donachie, W. and Gettinby, G. and Gibson, G.M. and Low, J.C.; (1995) Modelling listerial activity within a silage bale. In: Proceedings of a Meeting of the Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine. DEFRA, pp. 101-109. ISBN 0-948073-19-5