A review of probabilistic methods for defining reserve requirements

Dowell, Jethro and Hawker, Graeme and Bell, Keith and Gill, Simon; (2016) A review of probabilistic methods for defining reserve requirements. In: 2016 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting. IEEE, USA. ISBN 9781509041688 (https://doi.org/10.1109/PESGM.2016.7741361)

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Abstract

In this paper we examine potential improvements in how load and generation forecast uncertainty is captured when setting reserve levels in power systems with significant renewable generation penetration and discuss the merit of proposed new methods in this area. One important difference between methods is whether reserves are defined based on the marginal distribution of forecast errors, as calculated from historic data, or whether the conditional distribution, specific to the time at which reserves are being scheduled, is used. This paper is a review of published current practice in markets which are at the leading edge of this problem, summarizing their experiences, and aligning it with academic modeling work. We conclude that the ultimate goal for all markets expected to manage high levels of renewable generation should be a reserve setting mechanism which utilizes the best understanding of meteorological uncertainties combined with traditional models of uncertainty arising from forced outages.

ORCID iDs

Dowell, Jethro ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5960-666X, Hawker, Graeme ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2876-4371, Bell, Keith ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9612-7345 and Gill, Simon ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4583-6042;
  • Item type:Book Section
    ID code:56013
    Dates:
    Date
    Event
    14 November 2016
    Published
    25 February 2016
    Accepted
    Notes:© 2016 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.
    Subjects:Technology > Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
    Department:Faculty of Engineering > Electronic and Electrical Engineering
    Depositing user: Pure Administrator
    Date deposited:29 Mar 2016 11:18
    Last modified:11 Nov 2024 15:04
    Related URLs:
    URI:https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/56013
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