A transport and lairage model for Salmonella transmission between pigs, applicable to EU member states

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Simmons, R. R. L. and Hill, A. A. and Swart, A. and Kelly, L. and Snary, E. L. (2016) A transport and lairage model for Salmonella transmission between pigs, applicable to EU member states. Risk Analysis, 36 (3). pp. 482-497. ISSN 1539-6924 (https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12390)

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Abstract

A model for the transmission of Salmonella between finisher pigs during transport to the abattoir and subsequent lairage has been developed, including novel factors such as environmental contamination and the effect of stress and is designed to be adaptable for any EU Member State (MS). The model forms part of a generic farm-to-consumption model for Salmonella in pigs, designed to model potentially important risk factors and assess the effectiveness of interventions. In this paper we discuss the parameterisation of the model for two case-study MSs. For both MSs, the model predicted an increase in the average MS level prevalence of Salmonella positive pigs during both transport and lairage, accounting for a large amount of the variation between reported on farm prevalence and reported lymph-node prevalence at the slaughterhouse. Sensitivity analysis suggested that stress is the most important factor during transport, while a number of factors including environmental contamination and the dose-response parameters are important during lairage. There was wide variation in the model predicted change in prevalence in individual batches; while the majority of batches (80-90%) had no increase, in some batches the increase in prevalence was over 70% and in some cases infection was introduced into previously uninfected batches of pigs. Thus, the model suggests that while the transport and lairage stages of the farm-to-consumption exposure pathway are unlikely to be responsible for a large increase in average prevalence at the MS level, they can have a large effect on prevalence at an individual batch level.

ORCID iDs

Simmons, R. R. L., Hill, A. A., Swart, A., Kelly, L. ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2242-0781 and Snary, E. L.;
  • Item type:Article
    ID code:53279
    Dates:
    Date
    Event
    1 March 2016
    Published
    12 May 2015
    Published Online
    15 February 2015
    Accepted
    Notes:This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Simmons, R. R. L., Hill, A. A., Swart, A., Kelly, L., & Snary, E. L. (2016). A transport and lairage model for Salmonella transmission between pigs, applicable to EU member states. Risk Analysis, 36(3), 482-497., which has been published in final form at http://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12390. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving
    Subjects:Social Sciences > Industries. Land use. Labor > Risk Management
    Science > Mathematics > Probabilities. Mathematical statistics
    Department:Faculty of Science > Mathematics and Statistics
    Depositing user: Pure Administrator
    Date deposited:04 Jun 2015 22:37
    Last modified:11 Nov 2024 11:01
    Related URLs:
    URI:https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/53279
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