A farm transmission model for Salmonella in pigs, applicable to EU members states

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Hill, Andrew A. and Simmons, Robin R. L. and Kelly, Louise and Snary, Emma L. (2016) A farm transmission model for Salmonella in pigs, applicable to EU members states. Risk Analysis, 36 (3). pp. 461-481. ISSN 1539-6924 (https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12356)

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Abstract

The burden of Salmonella entering pig slaughterhouses across the European Union (EU) is considered a primary food safety concern. In order to assist EU Member States with the development of National Control Plans, we have developed a farm transmission model applicable to all Member States. It is an individual-based stochastic Susceptible-Infected model, that takes into account four different sources of infection of pigs (sows, feed, external contaminants such as rodents and new stock) and various management practices linked to Salmonella transmission/protection (housing, flooring, feed, All-In-All-Out production). A novel development within the model is the assessment of dynamic shedding rates. The results of the model, parameterized for two case study Member States (one high and one low prevalence) suggest that breeding herd prevalence is a strong indicator of slaughter pig prevalence. Until a Member States’ breeding herd prevalence is brought below 10% then the sow will be the dominant source of infection to pigs raised for meat production; below this level of breeding herd prevalence, feed becomes the dominant force of infection.

ORCID iDs

Hill, Andrew A., Simmons, Robin R. L., Kelly, Louise ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2242-0781 and Snary, Emma L.;
  • Item type:Article
    ID code:53278
    Dates:
    Date
    Event
    1 March 2016
    Published
    25 February 2015
    Published Online
    27 December 2014
    Accepted
    Notes:This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Hill, A. A., Simons, R. R. L., Kelly, L. and Snary, E. L. (2016), A Farm Transmission Model for Salmonella in Pigs, Applicable to E.U. Member States. Risk Analysis. doi: 10.1111/risa.12356, which has been published in final form at http://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12356. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.
    Subjects:Science > Physiology
    Agriculture > Animal culture
    Department:Faculty of Science > Mathematics and Statistics
    Depositing user: Pure Administrator
    Date deposited:04 Jun 2015 22:36
    Last modified:11 Nov 2024 10:58
    Related URLs:
    URI:https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/53278
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