Multi-hazard Indicators

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Cha, YoungHwa and Arosio, Marcello and White, Christopher (2024) Multi-hazard Indicators. In: 4th UK National Climate Impacts Meeting, 2024-09-05 - 2024-09-06, Newcastle University.

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Abstract

The rapid changes in the hazard landscape are widely recognised including many areas prone to the simultaneous occurrence of extreme weather events, closely connected to physical climate changes. Increasing concerns have been raised about the exacerbating impacts of multi-hazard risks, which can be more devastating compared to extreme events occurring in isolation. Although there has been growing attention to multi-hazard risks in recent decades, these issues face a range of additional challenges due to the complexity of interrelationships between hazards. There are also many confusing descriptions and different methods used to model multi-hazard scenarios. Even with advanced climate and hazard modelling, these results do not necessarily or automatically determine where the information can be useful. Therefore, this study aims to identify where and how multi-hazard information contributes to local-level decision-making in Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation through the development of multi-hazard indicators. This research is part of the Horizon Europe project MEDiate (Multi-hazard and Risk-Informed System for Enhanced Local and Regional Disaster Risk Management). The development of multi-hazard indicators within the MEDiate project adopts a qualitative approach, participatory action research, and quantitative analysis of four interactive multi-hazard pairs: compounding coastal and riverine flooding, extreme heat and drought, extreme wind and precipitation, and extreme precipitation and landslides—across four European testbeds: Oslo (Norway), Nice (France), Essex (UK), and Múlaþing (Iceland). Three types of new indicators were developed: 1) trends in co-occurrence frequency, 2) the joint return period, and 3) the spatial distribution of co-occurrence. We explored what each indicator implies, the background information resulting in a number, graph, or map, and how challenging it is to simplify these while maintaining scientific rigour for hazards that vary greatly in their types, intensities, and frequencies across different scales and resolutions.

ORCID iDs

Cha, YoungHwa ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9677-3889, Arosio, Marcello and White, Christopher ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1791-4784;
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)