Modelling plausible scenarios for the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant from early-stage surveillance

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Banks, Christopher J. and Colman, Ewan and Wood, Anthony J. and Doherty, Thomas and Kao, Rowland R. (2024) Modelling plausible scenarios for the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant from early-stage surveillance. Epidemics, 49. 100800. ISSN 1755-4365 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100800)

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Abstract

We used a spatially explicit agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission combined with spatially fine-grained COVID-19 observation data from Public Health Scotland to investigate the initial rise of the Omicron (BA.1) variant of concern. We evaluated plausible scenarios for transmission rate advantage and vaccine immune escape relative to the Delta variant based on the data that would have been available at that time. We also explored possible outcomes of different levels of imposed non-pharmaceutical intervention. The initial results of these scenarios were used to inform the Scottish Government in the early outbreak stages of the Omicron variant. Using the model with parameters fit over the Delta variant epidemic, some initial assumptions about Omicron transmission rate advantage and vaccine escape, and a simple growth rate fitting procedure, we were able to capture the initial outbreak dynamics for Omicron. We found that the modelled dynamics hold up to retrospective scrutiny. The modelled imposition of extra non-pharmaceutical interventions planned by the Scottish Government at the time would likely have little effect in light of the transmission rate advantage held by the Omicron variant and the fact that the planned interventions would have occurred too late in the outbreak’s trajectory. Finally, we found that any assumptions made about the projected distribution of vaccines in the model population had little bearing on the outcome, in terms of outbreak size and timing. Instead, it was the landscape of prior immunity that was most important.

  • Item type:Article
    ID code:91108
    Dates:
    Date
    Event
    December 2024
    Published
    4 November 2024
    Published Online
    14 October 2024
    Accepted
    22 September 2023
    Submitted
    Subjects:Science > Microbiology > Virology
    Department:Faculty of Science
    Depositing user: Pure Administrator
    Date deposited:08 Nov 2024 11:53
    Last modified:12 Dec 2024 15:44
    URI:https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/91108
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