The value of experiments in futures and foresight science : a reply

Derbyshire, James and Dhami, Mandeep K. and Belton, Ian and Önkal, Dilek (2023) The value of experiments in futures and foresight science : a reply. Futures & Foresight Science, 5 (2). e156. ISSN 2573-5152 (https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.156)

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Abstract

We thank those responding to our paper "The value of experiments in futures and foresight science as illustrated by the case of scenario planning" (Derbyshire, Dhami, et al., 2022). The research on which the paper was based was funded by a Research and Capacity Building Grant from the Society for the Advancement of Management Studies (SAMS) and the British Academy of Management (BAM). In addition to writing the focal paper, the project funded by the grant also saw the authors conduct three controlled experiments related to scenario planning, findings from which are to be reported in two further papers that are currently under review. We thank SAMS and BAM for their support in developing an area of research which is rapidly increasing in importance. In the United Kingdom, scenarios featured centrally within official government decision-making processes during the coronavirus pandemic and were referred to in the media daily. The pandemic confirmed that, if it were ever possible to deny fundamental uncertainty or that new tools and methods are needed to tackle it, that is no longer the case. The dangers associated with closing the future to make it amenable to standard forecasting tools and probability-based decision aids are clear. Closing the future to make it amenable to these standard tools leads to blindsiding by surprises. Yet, recognizing the dangers associated with use of standard tools is one thing and evidencing the efficacy of alternative tools quite another. Experiments should be a tool in the methodological toolbox of those searching for this evidence for the reasons we outlined in our paper. Below we provide some reflections on four expert responses to our paper.

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