A downscaled economic model validated and applied to sediment management projects in Ireland and Scotland

Harrington, J. and Sulivan, R. O.' and Hamilton, A. and Lord, R. and Torrance, K. and Wijdeveld, A. and Debuigne, T. and Masson, E. and Batel, B. (2022) A downscaled economic model validated and applied to sediment management projects in Ireland and Scotland. Journal of Soils and Sediments, 22 (11). pp. 2900-2911. ISSN 1614-7480 (https://doi.org/10.1007/s11368-022-03267-z)

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Abstract

Purpose: This paper presents a regionally downscaled economic model developed to assess the impacts of the management of dredged sediments on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and jobs created; the model is validated and applied using real project data from sediment management projects in Ireland and Scotland. The model provides significant insight into and allows impact analysis for the economic aspect of sediment management projects with the potential to facilitate and inform stakeholders across the sediment management sector. Methods: The economic model facilitates regional analysis of the impacts of sediment management projects on GDP and job creation for direct, indirect and induced effects. Methods for estimating the economic induced impacts are based on industry-specific type I and type II economic multipliers and coefficients, derived for the EU Interreg SURICATES partner countries (Ireland, Scotland, France and the Netherlands) using symmetric input–output tables and application of the open Leontief model and based on available economic data for the identified countries. The model is applied to sediment management projects in Ireland (a harbour development project at Castletownbere) and in Scotland (a bioremediation project at Falkirk). Model results are compared to project data for direct contribution to GDP and direct jobs created, and the model also estimates the indirect and induced economic project impacts. The model has been applied to undertake sensitivity analyses and compare different sediment management options. Results: Model results provide a satisfactory comparison to real project data for direct cost and jobs created. Indirect economic benefits for GDP and employment created were estimated from 47 to 53% of direct impacts. The model has been applied to undertake sensitivity analyses and assess a range of different site-specific sediment management options with indirect economic impacts ranging from 42 to 53% of direct impacts. Conclusions: The economic model results are compared to real project economic data, the validation exercise proving satisfactory with promising results. Sensitivity analyses and site-specific sediment management options have been assessed. The positive economic impacts of the Castletownbere Harbour project in particular are evident. These results highlight the potentially different economic impacts of the implementation of different sediment management options and in different regions and countries. The model allows the quantification of the economic benefits of sediment management projects. The model provides significant insight into and allows impact analysis for the economic aspect of sediment management projects and has the potential to facilitate and inform stakeholders and decision-makers across the sector.

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