Compositional modelling of immune response and virus transmission dynamics
Waites, W. and Cavaliere, M. and Danos, V. and Datta, R. and Eggo, R. M. and Hallett, T. B. and Manheim, D. and Panovska-Griffiths, J. and Russell, T. W. and Zarnitsyna, V. I. (2022) Compositional modelling of immune response and virus transmission dynamics. Philosophical Transactions A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 380 (2233). pp. 1-24. 20210307. ISSN 1471-2962 (https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2021.0307)
Preview |
Text.
Filename: Waites_etal_PTA_MPES_2022_Compositional_modelling_of_immune_response_and_virus_transmission_dynamics.pdf
Final Published Version License: Download (4MB)| Preview |
Abstract
Transmission models for infectious diseases are typically formulated in terms of dynamics between individuals or groups with processes such as disease progression or recovery for each individual captured phenomenologically, without reference to underlying biological processes. Furthermore, the construction of these models is often monolithic: they do not allow one to readily modify the processes involved or include the new ones, or to combine models at different scales. We show how to construct a simple model of immune response to a respiratory virus and a model of transmission using an easily modifiable set of rules allowing further refining and merging the two models together. The immune response model reproduces the expected response curve of PCR testing for COVID-19 and implies a long-tailed distribution of infectiousness reflective of individual heterogeneity. This immune response model, when combined with a transmission model, reproduces the previously reported shift in the population distribution of viral loads along an epidemic trajectory. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.
ORCID iDs
Waites, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7759-6805, Cavaliere, M., Danos, V., Datta, R., Eggo, R. M., Hallett, T. B., Manheim, D., Panovska-Griffiths, J., Russell, T. W. and Zarnitsyna, V. I.;-
-
Item type: Article ID code: 81886 Dates: DateEvent3 October 2022Published15 August 2022Published Online16 March 2022AcceptedSubjects: Medicine > Public aspects of medicine > Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Science > Microbiology > Virology
Science > MathematicsDepartment: Faculty of Science > Computer and Information Sciences Depositing user: Pure Administrator Date deposited: 16 Aug 2022 10:37 Last modified: 20 Sep 2024 00:43 Related URLs: URI: https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/81886