Elicitation, analysis and mitigation of systemic pandemic risks

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Gonzalez, Jose and Eden, Colin and Abildsnes, Eirik and Hauge, Martin and Trentin, Monica and Ragazzoni, Luca and Berggren, Peter and Jonson, Carl-Oscar; Adrot, Anouck and Grace, Rob and Moore, Kathleen and Zobel, Christopher, eds. (2021) Elicitation, analysis and mitigation of systemic pandemic risks. In: 18th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management . ISCRAM, Blacksburg, pp. 581-596. ISBN 9781949373615

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Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted the health care system and affected all sectors of society, including critical infrastructures. In turn, the impact on society's infrastructures has impacted back on the health care sector. These interactions have created a system of associated risks and outcomes, where the outcomes of risks are risks themselves and where the resulting consequences are complex vicious cycles. Traditional risks assessment methods cannot cope with interdependent risks. This paper describes a novel risk systemicity approach to elicit and mitigate the systemic risks of a major pandemic. The approach employed the internet-based software strategyfinder™ in workshops to elicit relevant risk information from sixteen appropriately selected experts from the health care sector and major sectors impacted by and impacting back on the health care sector. The risk information was processed with powerful analytical tools of strategyfinder to allow the experts to prioritise portfolios of strategies attacking the vicious cycles.

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