Characteristics of a process for subjective probability elicitation

Quigley, John and Walls, Lesley; Hanea, Anca M. and Nane, Gabriela F. and Bedford, Tim and French, Simon, eds. (2021) Characteristics of a process for subjective probability elicitation. In: Expert Judgment in Risk and Decision Analysis. International Series in Operations Research and Management Science . Springer, Cham, Switzerland, pp. 287-318. ISBN 9783030464745 (https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-46474-5_13)

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Abstract

The elicitation of subjective probabilities from experts can be critical in determining a course of action when making decisions under uncertainty. A sound process to elicit probabilistic judgement is necessary to ensure that good quality data are used to inform the decision-making, as well as to provide protection to those accountable for the consequences of the determined actions. We synthesise the characteristics of a good elicitation process by critically reviewing those advocated and applied. We compare the processes inherent in the guidance produced by two professional bodies to exemplify the manner in which the characteristics manifest themselves in practice. We examine whether standardisation is meaningful given the maturity of processes for the elicitation of subjective probability.

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