Inflation Trends in Asia : Implications for Central Banks

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Garcia, Juan Angel and Poon, Aubrey (2019) Inflation Trends in Asia : Implications for Central Banks. Preprint / Working Paper. European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

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Abstract

Trend inflation estimates for 12 of the largest Asian economies over 1995-2018 over important insights on inflation dynamics and inflation expectations. The disinflationary shocks that hit the region since 2014 were partly transitory, but their effects have been different depending on the behaviour of trend inflation in each country. Countries with relatively high inflation (India, Philippines, Indonesia) benefited, and some were impacted very mildly (China, Taiwan, Hong Kong SAR, Malaysia). Among countries with inflation below target, in those with trend inflation low but constant (Australia, New Zealand) low inflation maybe lasting, but temporary, while those in which trend inflation has declined (South Korea, Thailand) risk low inflation to become entrenched and a de-anchoring of expectations. This diverse international evidence could over important lessons for monetary policy worldwide.

ORCID iDs

Garcia, Juan Angel and Poon, Aubrey ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2587-8779;
  • Item type:Monograph(Preprint / Working Paper)
    ID code:72449
    Dates:
    Date
    Event
    1 December 2019
    Published
    Notes:Published as ECB Working Paper Series No 2338.
    Subjects:Social Sciences > Economic Theory
    Department:Strathclyde Business School > Economics
    Depositing user: Pure Administrator
    Date deposited:21 May 2020 14:44
    Last modified:11 Nov 2024 16:05
    Related URLs:
    URI:https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/72449
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