Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation

Poon, Aubrey and Garcia, Juan Angel (2018) Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation. Preprint / Working Paper. International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C.. (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2018...)

Abstract

This paper incorporates market-based inflation expectations to the growing literature on trend inflation estimation, and finds that there has been a significant decline in euro area trend inflation since 2013. This finding is robust to using different measures of long-term inflation expectations in the estimation, both market-based and surveys. That evidence:(i) supports the expansion of ECB’s UMP measures since 2015;(ii) provides a metric to monitor long-term inflation expectations following their introduction, and the likelihood of a sustained return of inflation towards levels below but close to 2% over the medium term.

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• Item metadata

  Item type:	Monograph(Preprint / Working Paper)
  ID code:	65734
  Dates:	Date Event 30 June 2018 Published
  Notes:	IMF Working Paper No. WP/18/154
  Subjects:	Social Sciences > Economic Theory
  Department:	Strathclyde Business School > Economics
  Depositing user:	Pure Administrator
  Date deposited:	11 Oct 2018 08:47
  Last modified:	09 Apr 2024 04:41
  URI:	https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/65734