Bayes linear graphical models in the design of optimal test strategies

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Wilson, Kevin and Quigley, John and Bedford, Tim and Walls, Lesley (2013) Bayes linear graphical models in the design of optimal test strategies. In: 8th International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Reliability (MMR2013), 2013-07-01 - 2013-07-04. (Unpublished)

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Abstract

Testing plays a vital role in reducing uncertainty but is resource intensive and identifying the best design is a difficult process. During the development of a system there are a number of potential tests that can be performed with varying efficacy and resource requirements. In this paper we propose a Bayesian modelling process which takes the form of a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) to determine test efficacy and permits programme managers to assess optimal trade-offs between uncertainty reduction and resources. Supporting inference from a full Bayesian model can be prohibitively expensive computationally so we utilise a Bayes linear approximation, known as a Bayes linear Bayes graphical model, to the inference.

ORCID iDs

Wilson, Kevin, Quigley, John ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7253-8470, Bedford, Tim ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3545-2088 and Walls, Lesley ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7016-9141;
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