Applying evidential reasoning extended SPAR-H modelling to analyse human reliability on crude oil tanker cargo operation

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Elidolu, Gizem and Ahn, Sung Il and Sezer, Sukru Ilke and Kurt, Rafet Emek and Akyuz, Emre and Gardoni, Paolo (2023) Applying evidential reasoning extended SPAR-H modelling to analyse human reliability on crude oil tanker cargo operation. Safety Science, 164. 106169. ISSN 0925-7535 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2023.106169)

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Abstract

Human reliability analysis is essential to predict ship crew performance at the operation level for critical shipboard operations which pose a high risk. Specifically, the crew who are working on tanker ships has to be extra vigilant against the hazardous nature of the cargo. This paper performs a detailed human reliability analysis step by step for cargo discharging operations in crude oil tankers. To achieve this purpose, a Standardised Plant Analysis Risk Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) extended by the Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach is used to systematically predict the probability of human errors. While SPAR-H provides a robust tool to calculate human error probability simultaneously, the ER fuses raters’ opinions in decision-making. The finding of the research shows that the overall human reliability is found at 6.52E-01 for cargo discharging operations in crude oil tankers. Besides its practical contributions to maritime crude oil transportation, the proposed approach presents how a comprehensive insight into human reliability can be gained.

ORCID iDs

Elidolu, Gizem, Ahn, Sung Il ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9195-5475, Sezer, Sukru Ilke, Kurt, Rafet Emek ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5923-0703, Akyuz, Emre and Gardoni, Paolo;
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