Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

Waites, William, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium (2021) Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England. Science, 372 (6538). eabg3055. ISSN 0036-8075 (https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abg3055)

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Abstract

A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.

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