Uncertainty propagation in SINBAD fusion benchmarks with total Monte Carlo and imprecise probabilities

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Gray, Ander and Davis, Andrew and Patelli, Edoardo (2021) Uncertainty propagation in SINBAD fusion benchmarks with total Monte Carlo and imprecise probabilities. Fusion Science and Technology, 77 (7-8). pp. 802-812. ISSN 1536-1055 (https://doi.org/10.1080/15361055.2021.1895667)

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Abstract

In this paper we perform nuclear data uncertain propagation with Total Monte Carlo, where the transport simulation is repeated for random evaluations of the data. The Oktavian Iron, Oktavian Nickel, and the Frascati Neutron Generator (FNG) neutron streaming SINBAD benchmarks were evaluated with OpenMC. Gaussian random deviates were drawn from the ENDF/B-VII.1 and TENDL-2017 libraries where the covariances were available. Uncertainty from multiple nuclides was propagated simultaneously assuming inter-nuclide independence. When the individual statistical uncertainty is negligible compared to the data uncertainty, then standard probability theory may be applied. If this is not the case and both need to be considered, we use Imprecise Probabilities (IP) to perform further analysis. We show how uncertain experimental data may be compared to uncertain simulation in the context of IP, and show how an uncertainty-based sensitivity analysis can be performed with IP.

ORCID iDs

Gray, Ander, Davis, Andrew and Patelli, Edoardo ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5007-7247;
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