Stress accumulation in the Marmara Sea estimated through ground-motion simulations from dynamic rupture scenarios

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Aochi, Hideo and Douglas, John and Ulrich, Thomas (2017) Stress accumulation in the Marmara Sea estimated through ground-motion simulations from dynamic rupture scenarios. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 122 (3). 2219–2235. ISSN 2169-9356 (https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JB013790)

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Abstract

We compare ground motions simulated from dynamic rupture scenarios, for the seismic gap along the North Anatolian Fault under the Marmara Sea Turkey), to estimates from empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Ground motions are simulated using a finite difference method and a 3D model of the local crustal structure. They are analyzed at more than a thousand locations in terms of horizontal peak ground velocity. Characteristics of probable earthquake scenarios are strongly dependent on the hypothesized level of accumulated stress, in terms of a normalized stress parameter T (Aochi and Ulrich, 2015). With respect to the GMPEs, it is found that simulations for many scenarios systematically overestimate the ground motions at all distances. Simulations for only some scenarios, corresponding to moderate stress accumulation, match the estimates from the GMPEs. The difference between the simulations and the GMPEs is used to quantify the relative probabilities of each scenario and, therefore, to revise the probability of the stress field. A magnitude Mw7+ operating at moderate prestress field (0.6 < T ≤ 0.7) is statistically more probable, as previously assumed in the logic tree of probabilistic assessment of rupture scenarios. This approach of revising the mechanical hypothesis by means of comparison to an empirical statistical model (e.g. a GMPE) is useful not only for practical seismic hazard assessments but also to understand crustal dynamics.

ORCID iDs

Aochi, Hideo, Douglas, John ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3822-0060 and Ulrich, Thomas;
  • Item type:Article
    ID code:59933
    Dates:
    Date
    Event
    22 March 2017
    Published
    22 February 2017
    Accepted
    Notes:This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Aochi, H., Douglas, J., & Ulrich, T. (2017). Stress accumulation in the Marmara Sea estimated through ground-motion simulations from dynamic rupture scenarios. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, which will be published in final form by Wiley. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving
    Subjects:Technology > Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
    Science > Geology
    Department:Faculty of Engineering > Civil and Environmental Engineering
    Depositing user: Pure Administrator
    Date deposited:23 Feb 2017 11:48
    Last modified:30 Nov 2024 01:10
    Related URLs:
    URI:https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/59933
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