Systemic risk elicitation : using causal maps to engage stakeholders and build a comprehensive view of risks

Ackermann, Fran and Howick, Susan and Quigley, John and Walls, Lesley and Houghton, Tom (2014) Systemic risk elicitation : using causal maps to engage stakeholders and build a comprehensive view of risks. European Journal of Operational Research, 238 (1). pp. 290-299. ISSN 0377-2217 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2014.03.035)

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Abstract

As evidenced through both a historical and contemporary number of reported over-runs, managing projects can be a risky business. Managers are faced with the need to effectively work with a multitude of parties and deal with a wealth of interlocking uncertainties. This paper describes a modelling process developed to assist managers facing such situations. The process helps managers to develop a comprehensive appreciation of risks and gain an understanding of the impact of the interactions between these risks through explicitly engaging a wide stakeholder base using a group support system and causal mapping process. Using a real case the paper describes the modelling process and outcomes along with its implications, before reflecting on the insights, limitations and future research.

ORCID iDs

Ackermann, Fran, Howick, Susan ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0796-7981, Quigley, John ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7253-8470, Walls, Lesley ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7016-9141 and Houghton, Tom;
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)