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Updating parameters of the chicken processing line model

Kurowicka, Dorota and Nauta, Maarten and Jozwiak, Katarzyna and Cooke, Roger (2010) Updating parameters of the chicken processing line model. Risk Analysis, 30 (6). pp. 934-944.

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Abstract

A mathematical model of chicken processing that quantitatively describes the transmission of Campylobacter on chicken carcasses from slaughter to chicken meat product has been developed in Nauta et al. (2005). This model was quantified with expert judgment. Recent availability of data allows updating parameters of the model to better describe processes observed in slaughterhouses. We propose Bayesian updating as a suitable technique to update expert judgment with microbiological data. Berrang and Dickens's data are used to demonstrate performance of this method in updating parameters of the chicken processing line model.