Modelling and managing systemic risks in supply chains

Leerojanaprapa, Kanogkan and Walls, Lesley and van der Meer, Robert (2011) Modelling and managing systemic risks in supply chains. In: 18th International Conference of the European Operations Management Association, 3-6 July 2011, University of Cambridge, 2011-07-03 - 2011-07-06.

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A structured review of the supply chain and risk management literature supports an analysis of the sources and types of risks anticipated in supply chains and networks. We discuss alternative modelling approaches, such as Bayesian Belief Nets (BBN), System Dynamics, Fault and Event Trees, which are evaluated against the criteria characterizing systemic risks that emerge from the literature review. Finally, we briefly present an empirical pilot case study is conducted with a public sector organization in charge of a pharmaceutical distribution network to explore the feasibility of a BBN modelling approach.