Exploring the drivers of unsustainable pressures in health and social care : a qualitative system dynamics approach.

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Nguyen, Le Khanh Ngan and McCabe, Holly and Howick, Susan and Megiddo, Itamar and Sengupta, Soumen and Morton, Alec (2025) Exploring the drivers of unsustainable pressures in health and social care : a qualitative system dynamics approach. Social Science and Medicine, 371. 117913. ISSN 0277-9536 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2025.117913)

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Abstract

Health and social care systems face immense pressures that emerge from complex interdependencies between system components, transcending conventional explanations of demand-capacity mismatches. Although multiple theoretic perspectives (e.g., “complex adaptive systems”, “sociotechnical systems”) have been advocated as ways to capture and characterise the nature of that complexity, consolidating it into actionable insights for coordinated stakeholder efforts remains challenging, perpetuating implementation failure. This study introduces a novel application of qualitative system dynamics, using Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs), to reveal the deeper structural patterns that drive persistent challenges and explain why policies have often fallen short. Developed through stakeholder interviews in South Lanarkshire, Scotland, triangulated with UK-wide evidence, our CLD reveals how well-intentioned interventions generate cross-sectoral ripple effects. While stakeholders may recognise isolated consequences, organisational silos and temporal delays obscure the full complexity of feedback structures. Our findings expose inherent trade-offs, demonstrating how multiple, competing perspectives and reactive coping measures create emergent system properties that fundamentally challenge the oversimplified notion of “whole system working”, often hailed as a “magic bullet” solution. Significantly, we uncover a paradoxical tension: cross-sector collaboration initiatives can undermine personalised care delivery, highlighting the risk of conflicting strategic and political goals weakening intended outcomes. Our study advances system dynamics methodology by combining individual and cascaded system archetypes, enhancing clarity in communication of complex issues without losing critical feedback loops. This advancement provides decision-makers with a sophisticated yet accessible tool to visualise and understand complex system behaviour, engaging stakeholders through iterative feedback loop refinements, and steering towards an equitable, improved state.

ORCID iDs

Nguyen, Le Khanh Ngan ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6742-6896, McCabe, Holly, Howick, Susan ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0796-7981, Megiddo, Itamar ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8391-6660, Sengupta, Soumen and Morton, Alec ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3803-8517;
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)