Scottish Business Monitor, 2024 Q4

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Suri, Sanjam and Sousa, João (2025) Scottish Business Monitor, 2024 Q4. Fraser of Allander Institute, Glasgow.

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Abstract

This report outlines the key results from our latest Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI) Scottish Business Monitor in the fourth quarter of 2024. The survey sampled over 300 firms in December and January from across the Scottish economy, examining business sentiment in Q4 2024 and the outlook for the year ahead. At the end of calendar year 2024, business confidence remains pessimistic. Firms surveyed reported decline in business activity – both volume and sales in the last three months of 2024. Firms also reported a decline in the level of export activity and new capital investment despite central bank monetary easing which is gradually easing credit conditions in the economy. Changes announced in the UK Government Budget pertaining to employer NICs contributions are particularly weighing on the business environment- with three quarters of businesses surveyed indicating that these changes are expected to significantly impact their operations in 2025. Cost pressures also remain a lingering and ongoing concern with 94 per cent of businesses surveyed expect higher total business costs over the first half of 2025.

ORCID iDs

Suri, Sanjam and Sousa, João ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0006-9842-3870;
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)