Trading Borders : the importance of interregional integration and economy size for the impact of secession

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Figus, Gioele and McGregor, Peter and McIntyre, Stuart and Roy, Graeme (2025) Trading Borders : the importance of interregional integration and economy size for the impact of secession. Regional Studies. ISSN 0034-3404 (In Press) (https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2025.2461756)

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Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of secession on the “seceding” and “successor” regions. A two-regions computable general equilibrium model is initially calibrated to a set of synthetic datasets where the regions only differ in relative size and trade integration. Using the case of two identical regions as benchmark we show how relative size and trade integration determine the relative impact on both regions. This framework is used to explore three European case studies, the UK, Spain and Italy, demonstrating how, although always detrimental for both regions, trade integration and relative size explain the economic impacts of new trade borders.

ORCID iDs

Figus, Gioele ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2642-5504, McGregor, Peter ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1221-7963, McIntyre, Stuart ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0640-7544 and Roy, Graeme;
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)