Impacts of trade policy uncertainties on US-China bilateral trade

Ongan, Serdar and Gocer, Ismet (2025) Impacts of trade policy uncertainties on US-China bilateral trade. Chinese Economy. pp. 1-9. ISSN 1558-0954 (https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2025.2449716)

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Abstract

The escalating Sino-US trade war has led to a global economic contraction and increased trade policy uncertainties. This study examines the impacts of the US and China’s Trade Policy Uncertainties (TPU Indexes) on these countries’ Bilateral Trade Balances (BTBs). Empirical findings reveal that both increases and decreases in the TPU Indexes of both the US and China significantly affect their respective BTBs. Furthermore, it can be concluded that China’s trade policy or Chinese exporters-importers react to China’s trade policy uncertainty within China more than the US trade policy or US exporters-importers to US trade policy uncertainty within the USA. Another important conclusion is that China’s trade policy or exporters-importers react more to their own trade policy uncertainty than the US’s trade policy uncertainty within China. The policy implications generated from the empirical findings of this study for policymakers in both countries are presented in the paper’s final section.

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• Item metadata

  Item type:	Article
  ID code:	91858
  Dates:	Date Event 6 January 2025 Published 6 January 2025 Published Online 1 January 2025 Accepted 24 October 2023 Submitted
  Subjects:	Social Sciences > Economic Theory
  Department:	Strathclyde Business School > Economics
  Depositing user:	Pure Administrator
  Date deposited:	22 Jan 2025 10:29
  Last modified:	22 Jan 2025 10:29
  URI:	https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/91858