Spatial Spillover Effects of Conflict : Propagation through Food Prices in Somalia

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Alfano, Marco and Cornelissen, Thomas (2021) Spatial Spillover Effects of Conflict : Propagation through Food Prices in Somalia. Discussion paper. University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

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Abstract

This paper examines whether violent conflict in one area has discernible impacts in distant locations. To document such spatial spillover effects, we focus on food prices as a propagation mechanism in Somalia. Using geo-coded data on the food distribution network, we link food prices and human capital in different locations to conflict occurring within a narrow geographical corridor around food transportation routes supplying those areas. Our results show that conflict along transportation routes significantly increases food prices, even if markets are located hundreds of kilometres away. Evidence suggests increased transportation cost due to uncertainty and risk as a possible pathway of impact. We further find that conflict along transportation routes decreases food security, nutrition, health, and education for households living in far-away market areas. All effects are robust to controlling for local conflict.

ORCID iDs

Alfano, Marco ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5491-2054 and Cornelissen, Thomas;
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)