A diagnostics framework for underground power cables lifetime estimation under uncertainty

Aizpurua, Jose Ignacio Ignacio and Stewart, Brian G. and McArthur, Stephen D. J. and Jajware, Nitin and Kearns, Martin and Garro, Unai and Muxika, Eñaut and Mendicute, Mikel (2020) A diagnostics framework for underground power cables lifetime estimation under uncertainty. IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery. pp. 1-10. ISSN 0885-8977 (https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRD.2020.3017951)

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Abstract

Power cables are critical assets for the reliable operation of the grid. The cable lifetime is generally estimated from the conductor temperature and associated lifetime reduction. However, these tasks are intricate due to the complex physics-of-failure (PoF) degradation mechanism of the cable. This is further complicated with the different sources of uncertainty that affect the cable lifetime estimation. Generally, simplified or deterministic PoF models are adopted resulting in non-accurate decision-making under uncertainty. In contrast, the integration of uncertainties leads to a probabilistic decision-making process impacting directly on the flexibility to adopt decisions. Accordingly, this paper presents a novel cable lifetime estimation framework that connects data-driven probabilistic uncertainty models with PoF-based operation and degradation models through Bayesian state-estimation techniques. The framework estimates the cable health state and infers confidence intervals to aid decision-making under uncertainty. The proposed approach is validated with a case study with different configuration parameters and the effect of measurement errors on cable lifetime are evaluated with a sensitivity analysis. Results demonstrate that ambient temperature measurement errors influence more than load measurement errors, and the greater the cable conductor temperature the greater the influence of uncertainties on the lifetime estimate.

  • Item type:Article
    ID code:73644
    Dates:
    Date
    Event
    19 August 2020
    Published
    19 August 2020
    Published Online
    9 August 2020
    Accepted
    Notes:© 2020 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works. Part of this work was funded through Project ANRC 11-1 Power Cable Lifetiome Management in Nuclear Environments.
    Subjects:Technology > Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
    Department:Faculty of Engineering > Electronic and Electrical Engineering
    Depositing user: Pure Administrator
    Date deposited:18 Aug 2020 13:21
    Last modified:12 Apr 2024 00:26
    URI:https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/73644
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