Interdependence or contagion : a model switching approach with a focus on Latin America
Davidson, Sharada Nia (2020) Interdependence or contagion : a model switching approach with a focus on Latin America. Economic Modelling, 85. pp. 166-197. ISSN 0264-9993 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.05.015)
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Abstract
Empirical research analysing contagion has become increasingly fragmented. Different definitions of contagion have resulted in different methods being deployed to analyse financial transmission channels. This paper devises a novel econometric strategy where the nature of interdependencies, magnitude of interdependencies and transmission channels selected for inclusion can change over time. We thus appeal to multiple definitions of contagion, distinguishing between: interdependence, contagion through interdependence and abrupt contagion through changing linkages. Using our approach we analyse different crisis episodes in Latin America. Results generally indicate interdependence not contagion during the currency crises of the 1990s and Argentine crisis of 1998–2002. During the global financial crisis, results indicate abrupt contagion from the US to Argentina and Brazil. Mexico, however, experiences contagion through existing interdependencies with the US. Results also show that macroeconomic and uncertainty channels play a role during different crises not just financial channels. By establishing whether or not different interdependencies and transmission channels are present during different crises our model switching approach provides new insights.
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Item type: Article ID code: 70061 Dates: DateEvent29 February 2020Published23 May 2019Published Online13 May 2019AcceptedSubjects: Social Sciences > Economic History and Conditions Department: Strathclyde Business School > Economics Depositing user: Pure Administrator Date deposited: 08 Oct 2019 14:24 Last modified: 11 Nov 2024 12:28 URI: https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/70061