A Bayesian Spatial Individual Effects Probit Model of the 2010 U.K. General Election

Jensen, Christa D. and Lacombe, Donald J. and McIntyre, Stuart G. (2011) A Bayesian Spatial Individual Effects Probit Model of the 2010 U.K. General Election. Discussion paper. University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

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Abstract

The Conservative Party emerged from the 2010 United Kingdom General Election as the largest single party, but their support was not geographically uniform. In this paper, we estimate a hierarchical Bayesian spatial probit model that tests for the presence of regional voting effects. This model allows for the estimation of individual region-specific effects on the probability of Conservative Party success, incorporating information on the spatial relationships between the regions of the mainland United Kingdom. After controlling for a range of important covariates, we find that these spatial relationships are significant and that our individual region-specific effects estimates provide additional evidence of NorthSouth variations in Conservative Party support.

ORCID iDs

Jensen, Christa D., Lacombe, Donald J. and McIntyre, Stuart G. ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0640-7544;
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