The UK economy [April 1978]

Bell, David N. F. and Danson, Michael W. and Glassford, M. E. and Kirwan, Frank X. and McGilvray, James W. and Morton, A. J. and Wingfield, Alison A., Fraser of Allander Institute (1978) The UK economy [April 1978]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 3 (4). pp. 3-4. ISSN 0306-7866

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Abstract

Preliminary estimates suggest that United Kingdom real GDP barely rose above its 1976 level last year, and may indeed have fallen. This aggregate indicator reflects the poor performance of i t s components, a stagnant index of industrial production, a large shortfall in government capital expenditure and a depressed level of personal consumption. Nonetheless, the prospects for 1978 look somewhat more encouraging, and real GDP may grow by the order of 2½% to 3% on a calendar year basis. There are possibilities, however, that this more rapid pace of expansion may not be sustained much into 1979, as the current account of the balance of payments, and the rate of price inflation re-emerge as constraining factors.

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