Forecasts of the Scottish economy [November 2009]

Allan, Grant (2009) Forecasts of the Scottish economy [November 2009]. Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary, 33 (2). pp. 18-29. ISSN 2046-5378

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Abstract

It is five months since the last forecasts of the Scottish economy were published in the Fraser Economic Commentary. In that time, we have seen confirmation that Q2 growth was down 0.8% on Q1 2009, meaning that Scotland has now seen four quarters of consecutive negative growth. The rate of negative growth appears to have slowed, with Q1 2009 seeing a 2.5% quarterly reduction. Scottish GDP in Q2 was down 6.1% from its peak in Q2 2009.

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