Development and validation of a digital biomarker predicting acute kidney injury following cardiac surgery on an hourly basis

Lapp, Linda and Roper, Marc and Kavanagh, Kimberley and Schraag, Stefan (2023) Development and validation of a digital biomarker predicting acute kidney injury following cardiac surgery on an hourly basis. JTCVS Open, 16. pp. 540-581. ISSN 2666-2736 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.xjon.2023.09.023)

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Abstract

Objectives To develop and validate a digital biomarker for predicting the onset of acute kidney injury (AKI) on an hourly basis up to 24 hours in advance in the intensive care unit after cardiac surgery. Methods The study analyzed data from 6056 adult patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft and/or valve surgery between April 1, 2012, and December 31, 2018 (development phase, training, and testing) and 3572 patients between January 1, 2019, and June 30, 2022 (validation phase). The study used 2 dynamic predictive modeling approaches, namely logistic regression and bootstrap aggregated regression trees machine (BARTm), to predict AKI. The mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values across all lead times before the occurrence of AKI were reported. The clinical practicality was assessed using calibration. Results Of all included patients, 8.45% and 16.66% had AKI in the development and validation phases, respectively. When applied to testing data, AKI was predicted with the mean AUC of 0.850 and 0.802 by BARTm and logistic regression, respectively. When applied to validation data, BARTm and LR resulted in a mean AUC of 0.844 and 0.786, respectively. Conclusions This study demonstrated the successful prediction of AKI on an hourly basis up to 24 hours in advance. The digital biomarkers developed and validated in this study have the potential to assist clinicians in optimizing treatment and implementing preventive strategies for patients at risk of developing AKI after cardiac surgery in the intensive care unit.

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