Technology pathways, efficiency gains and price implications of decarbonising residential heat in the UK

Calvillo, Christian F. and Katris, Antonios and Alabi, Oluwafisayo and Stewart, Jamie and Zhou, Long and Turner, Karen (2023) Technology pathways, efficiency gains and price implications of decarbonising residential heat in the UK. Energy Strategy Reviews, 48. 101113. ISSN 2211-467X (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2023.101113)

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Abstract

The UK government’s plans to decarbonise residential heating will mean major changes to the energy system whatever the specific technology pathway chosen, driving a range of impacts on users and suppliers. We use an energy system model (UK TIMES) to identify the potential energy system impacts of alternative pathways to low or zero carbon heating. We find that the speed of transitioning can affect the network investment requirements, the overall energy use and emissions generated, while the primary heating fuel shift will determine which sectors and networks require most investment. Crucially, we identify that retail price differences between heating fuels in the UK, particularly gas and electricity, could erode or eliminate bill savings from switching to more efficient heating systems.

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