Changes in social contacts in England during the COVID-19 pandemic between March 2020 and March 2021 as measured by the CoMix survey : a repeated cross-sectional study

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Gimma, Amy and Munday, James D. and Wong, Kerry L.M. and Coletti, Pietro and van Zandvoort, Kevin and Prem, Kiesha and Klepac, Petra and Rubin, G. James and Funk, Sebastian and Edmunds, W. John and Jarvis, Christopher I. and Chapman, Lloyd A.C. and Clifford, Samuel and Jombart, Thibaut and O’Reilly, Kathleen and Lei, Jiayao and Abbas, Kaja and Krauer, Fabienne and Flasche, Stefan and Rosello, Alicia and Knight, Gwenan M. and Tully, Damien C. and Atkins, Katherine E. and Pung, Rachael and Eggo, Rosalind M. and Hodgson, David and Koltai, Mihaly and Jafari, Yalda and Russell, Timothy W. and Sandmann, Frank G. and Brady, Oliver and Waterlow, Naomi R. and Jit, Mark and Sun, Fiona Yueqian and Pearson, Carl A.B. and Waites, William and Finch, Emilie and Endo, Akira and Medley, Graham and McCarthy, Ciara V. and Kucharski, Adam J. and Mee, Paul and Gibbs, Hamish P. and Davies, Nicholas G. and Quilty, Billy J. and Meakin, Sophie R. and Villabona-Arenas, C. Julian and Bosse, Nikos I. and Hellewell, Joel and Procter, Simon R., CMMID COVID-19 Working Group (2022) Changes in social contacts in England during the COVID-19 pandemic between March 2020 and March 2021 as measured by the CoMix survey : a repeated cross-sectional study. PLOS Medicine, 19 (3). e1003907. ISSN 1549-1277 (https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003907)

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Abstract

Background During: the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (CAU OVID-19): pandemic, the United Kingdom government imposed public health policies in England to reduce social contacts in hopes of curbing virus transmission. We conducted a repeated cross-sectional study to measure contact patterns weekly from March 2020 to March 2021 to estimate the impact of these policies, covering 3 national lockdowns interspersed by periods of less restrictive policies. Methods and findings The repeated cross-sectional survey data were collected using online surveys of representative samples of the UK population by age and gender. Survey participants were recruited by the online market research company Ipsos MORI through internet-based banner and social media ads and email campaigns. The participant data used for this analysis are restricted to those who reported living in England. We calculated the mean daily contacts reported using a (clustered) bootstrap and fitted a censored negative binomial model to estimate age-stratified contact matrices and estimate proportional changes to the basic reproduction number under controlled conditions using the change in contacts as a scaling factor. To put the findings in perspective, we discuss contact rates recorded throughout the year in terms of previously recorded rates from the POLYMOD study social contact study. The survey recorded 101,350 observations from 19,914 participants who reported 466,710 contacts over 53 weeks. We observed changes in social contact patterns in England over time and by participants’ age, personal risk factors, and perception of risk. The mean reported contacts for adults 18 to 59 years old ranged between 2.39 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.20 to 2.60) contacts and 4.93 (95% CI 4.65 to 5.19) contacts during the study period. The mean contacts for school-age children (5 to 17 years old) ranged from 3.07 (95% CI 2.89 to 3.27) to 15.11 (95% CI 13.87 to 16.41). This demonstrates a sustained decrease in social contacts compared to a mean of 11.08 (95% CI 10.54 to 11.57) contacts per participant in all age groups combined as measured by the POLYMOD social contact study in 2005 to 2006. Contacts measured during periods of lockdowns were lower than in periods of eased social restrictions. The use of face coverings outside the home has remained high since the government mandated use in some settings in July 2020. The main limitations of this analysis are the potential for selection bias, as participants are recruited through internet-based campaigns, and recall bias, in which participants may under- or over-report the number of contacts they have made.

ORCID iDs

Gimma, Amy, Munday, James D., Wong, Kerry L.M., Coletti, Pietro, van Zandvoort, Kevin, Prem, Kiesha, Klepac, Petra, Rubin, G. James, Funk, Sebastian, Edmunds, W. John, Jarvis, Christopher I., Chapman, Lloyd A.C., Clifford, Samuel, Jombart, Thibaut, O’Reilly, Kathleen, Lei, Jiayao, Abbas, Kaja, Krauer, Fabienne, Flasche, Stefan, Rosello, Alicia, Knight, Gwenan M., Tully, Damien C., Atkins, Katherine E., Pung, Rachael, Eggo, Rosalind M., Hodgson, David, Koltai, Mihaly, Jafari, Yalda, Russell, Timothy W., Sandmann, Frank G., Brady, Oliver, Waterlow, Naomi R., Jit, Mark, Sun, Fiona Yueqian, Pearson, Carl A.B., Waites, William ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7759-6805, Finch, Emilie, Endo, Akira, Medley, Graham, McCarthy, Ciara V., Kucharski, Adam J., Mee, Paul, Gibbs, Hamish P., Davies, Nicholas G., Quilty, Billy J., Meakin, Sophie R., Villabona-Arenas, C. Julian, Bosse, Nikos I., Hellewell, Joel and Procter, Simon R.;
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)