Economic Commentary [February 2023]

Spowage, Mairi and Watts, Rob and Catalano, Allison and Crummey, Ciara and Cooper, Ben and Randolph, Hannah and Congreve, Emma (2023) Economic Commentary [February 2023]. Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary, 46 (4). pp. 1-35. ISSN 2046-5378

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Abstract

As we settle into 2023 it is clear the effects of the economic challenges that defined 2022 will very much continue to be felt this year. While inflation is largely believed to have peaked, it remains close to multi-decade highs and the Bank of England will need more convincing evidence that inflation is beaten before calling time on further rate hikes. The UK economy is likely to enter recession this year, or at best stagnate, as elevated inflation squeezes demand and the impact of higher interest rates further weighs on activity. However, the economy showed unexpected resilience in the closing months of 2022 and by the standards of past recessions this is likely to be a shallow one, with growth expected to resume towards the end of the year

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