Using occurrence data to map the elements of a risk model

N. MacKinnon, Scott and Farag, Yasser and Sotiralis, Panagiotis and Dandu Basappa, Rithvik and Thomson, Robert and Kirwan, Barry and Lopez Llobet, Marta; Leva, Maria Chiara and Patelli, Edoardo and Podofillini, Luca and Wilson, Simon, eds. (2022) Using occurrence data to map the elements of a risk model. In: Proceedings of the 32nd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL2022). Research Publishing, Singapore, pp. 3151-3156. ISBN 9789811851834

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Abstract

A Risk Model (RM) is a powerful tool to understand major accident categories and to provide information about the consequences of human actions and influences. A maritime Collision in Congested Waters RM model developed as part of SAFEMODE and provides a quantified approach that allows human actions to be understood in relation to an accident - describing both positive and negative contributions to an event. This paper presents the validation processes for the RM development and includes two phases: Part 1-Testing of the RM using real-world incidents to confirm the model can consistently describe the events in an incident. Part 2 provides feedback from stakeholders on the RM to improve the robustness and utility of the model and identify its applications to their activities. The results of the validation activities indicate that the RM has domain utility. However, directed applications, whether these be a post-accident forensics assessment, training or foresight visioning of the introduction of new technologies and operational procedures, requires further examination and exploitation.

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