Assessing the aggregated probability of entry of a novel prion disease agent into the United Kingdom

Horigan, Verity and Gale, Paul and Adkin, Amie and Konold, Timm and Cassar, Claire and Spiropoulos, John and Kelly, Louise (2020) Assessing the aggregated probability of entry of a novel prion disease agent into the United Kingdom. Microbial Risk Analysis, 16. 100134. ISSN 2352-3522 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mran.2020.100134)

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Abstract

In 2018 prion disease was detected in camels at an abattoir in Algeria for the first time. The emergence of prion disease in this species made it prudent to assess the probability of entry of the pathogen into the United Kingdom (UK) from this region. Potentially contaminated products were identified as evidenced by other prion diseases. The aggregated probability of entry of the pathogen was estimated as very high and high for legal milk and cheese imports respectively and very high, high and high for illegal meat, milk and cheese products respectively. This aggregated probability represents a qualitative assessment of the probability of one or more entry events per year into the UK; it gives no indication of the number of entry events per year. The uncertainty associated with these estimates was high due to the unknown variation in prevalence of infection in camels and an uncertain number and type of illegal products entering the UK. Potential public health implications of this pathogen are unknown although there is currently no evidence of zoonotic transmission of prion diseases other than bovine spongiform encephalopathy to humans.

ORCID iDs

Horigan, Verity, Gale, Paul, Adkin, Amie, Konold, Timm, Cassar, Claire, Spiropoulos, John and Kelly, Louise ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2242-0781;
  • Item type:Article
    ID code:74767
    Dates:
    Date
    Event
    31 December 2020
    Published
    15 August 2020
    Published Online
    10 August 2020
    Accepted
    Subjects:Science > Mathematics
    Department:Faculty of Science > Mathematics and Statistics
    Depositing user: Pure Administrator
    Date deposited:03 Dec 2020 09:50
    Last modified:11 Nov 2024 12:48
    URI:https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/74767
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