[W]hat lies beneath : using latent networks to improve spatial predictions

Dorff, Cassy and Gallop, Max and Minhas, Shahryar (2022) [W]hat lies beneath : using latent networks to improve spatial predictions. International Studies Quarterly, 66 (1). sqab086. ISSN 0020-8833 (https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqab086)

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Abstract

Spatial interdependencies commonly drive the spread of violence in civil conflict. To address such interdependence, scholars often use spatial lags to model the diffusion of violence, but this requires an explicit operationalization of the connectivity matrices that represent the spread of conflict. Unfortunately, in many cases, there are multiple competing processes that facilitate the spread of violence making it difficult to identify the true data-generating process. We show how a network driven methodology can allow us to account for the spread of violence, even in the cases where we cannot directly measure the factors that drive diffusion. To do so, we estimate a latent connectivity matrix that captures a variety of possible diffusion patterns. We use this procedure to study intrastate conflict in eight conflict-prone countries and show how our framework enables substantially better predictive performance than canonical spatial lag measures. We also investigate the circumstances under which canonical spatial lags suffice, and those under which a latent network approach is beneficial.

ORCID iDs

Dorff, Cassy, Gallop, Max ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6352-4301 and Minhas, Shahryar;
  • Item type:Article
    ID code:71227
    Dates:
    Date
    Event
    31 March 2022
    Published
    11 November 2021
    Published Online
    21 October 2021
    Accepted
    Notes:This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in International Studies Quarterly following peer review. The version of record Gallop, M, Dorff, C & Minhas, S 2020, '[W]hat lies beneath: using latent networks to improve spatial predictions of political violence', International Studies Quarterly, pp. 1-32. is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqab086
    Subjects:Political Science
    Department:Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences (HaSS) > Government and Public Policy > Politics
    Depositing user: Pure Administrator
    Date deposited:28 Jan 2020 11:38
    Last modified:11 Nov 2024 12:34
    URI:https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/71227
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