The effect of national and constituency level expectations on tactical voting in the British general election of 2010

Abramson, Paul R. and Aldrich, John H. and Diskin, Abraham and Houck, Aaron M. and Levine, Renan and Scotto, Thomas J. and Sparks, David B.; Stephenson, Laura B. and Aldrich, John H. and Blais, André, eds. (2018) The effect of national and constituency level expectations on tactical voting in the British general election of 2010. In: The Many Faces of Strategic Voting. University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, MI., pp. 28-60. ISBN 9780472131020 (https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.9946117)

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Abstract

The 2010 elections in the United Kingdom provided voters with numerous and diverse opportunities to reason strategically. The Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems)-traditionally finishing a distant third in terms of seats in Parliament-vied with labour to be the principal competition to the Conservatives, who failed to win a majority of seats, creating a rare case of what the British call a hung parliament. These conditions varied across constituencies at the district level, and we exploit this variation to study the incidence of "tactical" voting. But the national outcome also presented strategic considerations for voters, and the conditions varied to some extent over the course of the campaign, giving voters interviewed at different times different sets of national considerations for tactical voting. This presents us with the opportunity to investigate how both local and national considerations may shape strategic reasoning among voters and relate to each other and to the final choices of voters on Election Day.

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