Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The Scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date

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Murray, Josephine L K and Marques, Diogo F P and Cameron, Ross L and Potts, Alison and Bishop, Jennifer and von Wissmann, Beatrix and William, Naoma and Reynolds, Arlene J and Robertson, Chris and McMenamin, Jim (2018) Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The Scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date. Eurosurveillance, 23 (11). pp. 1-5. 18-00079. ISSN 1025-496X (https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.11.18...)

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Abstract

Scotland observed an unusual influenza A(H3N2)- dominated 2017/18 influenza season with healthcare services under significant pressure. We report the application of the moving epidemic method (MEM) to virology data as a tool to predict the influenza peak activity period and peak week of swab positivity in the current season. This novel MEM application has been successful locally and is believed to be of potential use to other countries for healthcare planning and building wider community resilience.

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