Mathematical modelling the spread of Zika and Microcephaly in Brazil

Liang, Yanfeng and Greenhalgh, David; (2017) Mathematical modelling the spread of Zika and Microcephaly in Brazil. In: Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering. CMMSE, [S.I.], pp. 1264-1268. ISBN 978-84-617-8694-7

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In this paper we look at a non-age-structured model for the spread of the Zika Virus and Microcephaly in Brazil. We first outline the non-seasonal differential equation model, and discuss parameter values and their estimation. Then we talk about the basic reproduction number and details of the calculation of the number of Microcephaly cases. Next we estimate how the model can be made more realistic by introducing seasonality into the mosquito population. Finally we consider sensitivity of the results to the mosquito biting rate.