The 2015 UK Election Outcome

Rose, Richard and Savouri, Savvas (2015) The 2015 UK Election Outcome. [Report]

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Abstract

In the tradition of providing investors with timely, incisive and original discussion papers, Toscafund commissioned a detailed report on the likely outcome of the 2015 General Election,. The 7th May British general election is interfering with all sorts of calculations about economy and uncertainty about the outcome compounds the curse. Most of what we read about the election re-affirms uncertainty, as academics and pollsters express their opinions in terms of the probabilities of the Conservatives or of Labour winning. This report is different. Professor Rose makes a clear prediction of which party will come first. This is not based on projecting poll results. Instead, it follows from a constituency by constituency analysis of how four parties that constitute a third force (UKIP, SNP, Liberal Democrats and the Greens) will result in both the Conservative and Labour parties winning and losing seats in Parliament.