Surrogate model for probabilistic modeling of atmospheric entry for small NEO's

Mehta, Piyush M. and Kubicek, Martin and Minisci, Edmondo and Vasile, Massimiliano; Zanetti, Renato and Russell, Ryan P. and Ozimek, Martin T. and Bowes, Angela L., eds. (2016) Surrogate model for probabilistic modeling of atmospheric entry for small NEO's. In: Spaceflight Mechanics 2016. Advances in the Astronautical Sciences . American Astronautical Society, USA, pp. 1807-1822. ISBN 9780877036333

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Near Earth Objects (NEOs) enter the Earths atmosphere on a regular basis. Depending on the size, object and entry parameters; these objects can burn-up through ablation (complete evaporation), undergo fragmentation of varying nature, or impact the ground unperturbed. Parameters that influence the physics during entry are either unknown or highly uncertain. In this work, we propose a probabilistic approach for simulating entry. Probabilistic modeling typically requires an expensive Monte Carlo approach. In this work, we develop and present a novel engineering approach of developing surrogate models for simulation of the atmospheric entry accounting for drag, ablation, evaporation, fragmentation, and ground impact.