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Expert judgement in resource forecasting – the use of the Delphi method to achieve group consensus

Hird, Abigail and Kreiling, Laura (2016) Expert judgement in resource forecasting – the use of the Delphi method to achieve group consensus. In: Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Group Decision & Negotiation. Western Washington University, Washington.

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    Abstract

    Expert judgement is used in a novel resource forecasting method to build models that forecast resource requirements. In this study, a collaborative decision-making process is deployed to ensure user acceptance in an empirical setting with limited legacy data for model validation. The Delphi method allowed facilitating this process and to achieve group consensus during estimate collection. With action research, Delphi parameters are adjusted in three concurrent case studies involving different expert groups. This study shows that Delphi is a useful and valid approach to provide acceptable degree validation for quantitative empirical expert models if only limited legacy data is available for model validation.